| Date | District | Pollster | Sample | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | MI Senate | RedBox Research | 2696 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-10-22 | PA-1 | New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400.0 LV | 48% | 46% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-22 | PA-7 | New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400.0 LV | 49% | 44% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-22 | PA-8 | New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400.0 LV | 51% | 46% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-22 | PA-10 | New York Times/The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University | 400.0 LV | 48% | 48% | D+1 |
| 2026-10-22 | OH Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 47% | 44% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-22 | MI Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 47% | 46% | D+1 |
| 2026-10-21 | MN Senate | Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1182 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-20 | OH Senate | Verasight/VoteHub | 531 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-19 | OH Senate | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 2005 RV | 53% | 46% | D+7 |
| 2026-10-18 | OH Senate | ActiVote | 400 LV | 50% | 50% | D+0 |
| 2026-10-18 | OH Senate | Marist University | 600 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-18 | MI Senate | Marist University | 600 LV | 50% | 48% | D+2 |
| 2026-10-15 | MN Senate | Trafalgar Group (R) | 1079 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-14 | PA-8 | Emerson College | 396.0 LV | 52% | 48% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-14 | OH Senate | Rasmussen Reports (R) | 901 LV | 47% | 49% | R+2 |
| 2026-10-14 | MI Senate | Rasmussen Reports (R) | 798 LV | 46% | 44% | D+2 |
| 2026-10-13 | OH Senate | GS Strategy Group (R)/New River Strategies (D) | 959 LV | 49% | 43% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-12 | MN Senate | KSTP/SurveyUSA | 718 LV | 45% | 42% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-11 | PA-10 | Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 300.0 LV | 49% | 46% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-10 | MI Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 48% | 46% | D+2 |
| 2026-10-09 | OH Senate | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1000 LV | 48% | 42% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-09 | MI Senate | Wedgewood Polls | 607 LV | 53% | 47% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-08 | PA-1 | Global Strategy Group (D) | 1032.0 LV | 46% | 46% | D+2 |
| 2026-10-08 | MI Senate | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | 44% | 46% | R+2 |
| 2026-10-07 | MN Senate | Morning Consult (D) | 1000 RV | 45% | 41% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-07 | MN Senate | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | 47% | 43% | D+4 |
| 2026-10-07 | MN Senate | Rasmussen Reports (R) | 856 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-06 | OH Senate | co/efficient (R) | 925 LV | 45% | 46% | R+1 |
| 2026-10-06 | MI Senate | Quantus Insights (R) | 762 LV | 48% | 47% | D+1 |
| 2026-10-05 | OH Senate | SSRS | 760 LV | 49% | 43% | D+6 |
| 2026-10-04 | MI Senate | YouGov | 3949 LV | 49% | 48% | D+1 |
| 2026-10-04 | MN Senate | GQR (D) | 800 LV | 53% | 44% | D+9 |
| 2026-10-01 | OH Senate | New York Times/Siena University | 616 LV | 49% | 46% | D+3 |
| 2026-10-01 | MI Senate | Z to A Research (D) | 483 LV | 49% | 42% | D+7 |
| 2026-10-01 | MI Senate | Mitchell Research & Communications | 682 LV | 46% | 41% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-30 | MI Senate | Trafalgar Group (R) | 1085 LV | 47% | 45% | D+2 |
| 2026-09-30 | MI Senate | Fox News | 600 LV | 50% | 49% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-30 | OH Senate | YouGov | 3780 LV | 49% | 45% | D+4 |
| 2026-09-30 | MN Senate | Big Data Poll (R) | 622 LV | 40% | 38% | D+2 |
| 2026-09-29 | OH Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 44% | 43% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-29 | MN Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 46% | 45% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-28 | MI Senate | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1028 LV | 50% | 49% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-27 | OH Senate | Big Data Poll (R) | 680 LV | 46% | 43% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-27 | MI Senate | Marist University | 1235 RV | 51% | 44% | D+7 |
| 2026-09-27 | MI Senate | Guidant Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | 48% | 43% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MI Senate | The Tyson Group (R) | 600 LV | 44% | 43% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-27 | OH Senate | Marist University | 1298 RV | 51% | 43% | D+8 |
| 2026-09-27 | OH Senate | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47% | 44% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-24 | MI Senate | Siena College | 600 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-24 | MI Senate | Big Data Poll (R) | 678 LV | 47% | 42% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-23 | OH Senate | Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1115 LV | 46% | 43% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-23 | MI Senate | co/efficient | 600 LV | 45% | 45% | D+0 |
| 2026-09-23 | OH Senate | Quantus Insights (R) | 695 LV | 47% | 47% | D+0 |
| 2026-09-22 | MI Senate | New York Times/Siena University | 600 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-22 | MI Senate | GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-09-21 | MI Senate | Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) | 600 LV | 45% | 40% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PA-7 | Franklin & Marshall College | 357.0 RV | 45% | 40% | D+8 |
| 2026-09-20 | PA-10 | Franklin & Marshall College | 390.0 RV | 47% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MI Senate | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47% | 40% | D+7 |
| 2026-09-19 | MI Senate | Torchlight Strategies (R) | 643 LV | 43% | 44% | R+1 |
| 2026-09-17 | MI Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 47% | 45% | D+2 |
| 2026-09-17 | MI Senate | Wash. Post-Schar School | 600 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-16 | MN Senate | SurveyUSA | 600 LV | 42% | 42% | D+0 |
| 2026-09-16 | OH Senate | Trafalgar Group (R) | 1085 LV | 45% | 42% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-15 | MN Senate | co/efficient (R) | 833 LV | 43% | 42% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-14 | PA-1 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 400.0 RV | 40% | 49% | R+7 |
| 2026-09-14 | PA-1 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 400.0 RV | 42% | 51% | R+8 |
| 2026-09-14 | MN Senate | KSTP/SurveyUSA | 654 LV | 42% | 42% | D+0 |
| 2026-09-14 | MI Senate | The Washington Post/SSPG | 803 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-14 | MI Senate | Emerson College | 1000 LV | 48% | 46% | D+2 |
| 2026-09-10 | OH Senate | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 1000 LV | 48% | 45% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-10 | MN Senate | Quantus Insights | 720 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-09-09 | OH Senate | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1200 LV | 47% | 42% | D+5 |
| 2026-09-09 | MI Senate | Trafalgar Group (R) | 1079 LV | 46% | 45% | D+1 |
| 2026-09-06 | MI Senate | SSRS | 843 LV | 47% | 44% | D+3 |
| 2026-09-03 | MI Senate | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 44% | 46% | R+2 |
| 2026-09-02 | MN Senate | TIPP Insights | 1494 RV | 40% | 38% | D+2 |
| 2026-09-01 | MI Senate | Michigan State Univ. | 600 LV | 50% | 45% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-29 | MI Senate | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-28 | MI Senate | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 50% | 45% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-28 | OH Senate | Abacus Data | 306 LV | 52% | 46% | D+6 |
| 2026-08-28 | MI Senate | Abacus Data | 600 LV | 49% | 45% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-23 | PA-1 | GQR (D) | 400.0 LV | 48% | 49% | R+0 |
| 2026-08-20 | MI Senate | AARP | 600 LV | 48% | 47% | D+1 |
| 2026-08-20 | MI Senate | Michigan State University/YouGov | 913 RV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-18 | MN Senate | SurveyUSA | 600 LV | 46% | 41% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-18 | MN Senate | Deep Root Analytics (R) | 597 RV | 50% | 45% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-17 | MI Senate | Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 800 LV | 46% | 39% | D+7 |
| 2026-08-17 | MN Senate | KTSP/SurveyUSA | 661 LV | 46% | 41% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-13 | MI Senate | Fox News | 600 LV | 47% | 51% | R+4 |
| 2026-08-11 | MI Senate | Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | 877 LV | 48% | 47% | D+1 |
| 2026-08-10 | MI Senate | TIPP Insights (R) | 1528 RV | 43% | 39% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-10 | MI Senate | GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 50% | 44% | D+6 |
| 2026-08-10 | MI Senate | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1006 RV | 47% | 51% | R+4 |
| 2026-08-10 | OH Senate | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1008 RV | 53% | 45% | D+8 |
| 2026-08-09 | PA-1 | Global Strategy Group (D) | 500.0 LV | 43% | 47% | R+2 |
| 2026-08-04 | OH Senate | Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | 47% | 43% | D+4 |
| 2026-07-31 | MI Senate | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 43% | 46% | R+3 |
| 2026-07-30 | MI Senate | SoCal Strategies (R) | 640 LV | 41% | 42% | R+1 |
| 2026-07-29 | MI Senate | Mitchell Research & Communications | 672 LV | 45% | 45% | D+0 |
Rating Scale: Safe (>95%), Likely (80-95%), Leans (60-80%), Tossup (40-60%) | FiveThirtyEight Standard
Model Validation: Backtest on 2024 races: RMSE 6.1 pts, 89.7% correct winners