Congressional Forecast

Michigan (13 Districts)

MI-1

86% R

R+6.0

Likely R

R inc

MI-2

97% R

R+9.9

Safe R

R inc

MI-3

92% D

D+7.7

Likely D

D inc

MI-4

71% R

R+3.1

Leans R

R inc

MI-5

97% R

R+10.3

Safe R

R inc

MI-6

99% D

D+20.1

Safe D

D inc

MI-7

86% R

R+5.9

Likely R

R inc

MI-8

99% D

D+12.9

Safe D

D inc

MI-9

99% R

R+12.5

Safe R

R inc

MI-10

70% R

R+3.0

Leans R

R inc

MI-11

99% D

D+17.2

Safe D

D inc

MI-12

99% D

D+26.8

Safe D

D inc

MI-13

99% D

D+26.3

Safe D

D inc

U.S. Senate (2 Races) PRELIMINARY

Projected matchups — nominees are not final until the August primaries, and these races are still lightly polled. Treat as preliminary.

Michigan — U.S. Senate

Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) · projected

R+0.1

Tossup

D win 50% R win 50%

Latest poll: AARP · Aug 20, 2026 · D+1

Minnesota — U.S. Senate

Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R) · projected

D+3.6

Likely D

D win 78% R win 22%

Latest poll: Deep Root Analytics (R) · Aug 18, 2026 · D+5

Statewide Senate forecasts blend a population-weighted state-partisanship structural model with 270toWin general-election polls (recency- and quality-weighted), simulated jointly with the other races. Preliminary — updated 2026-08-28.

Recent Polls

Date	District	Pollster	Sample	Dem	Rep	Margin
2026-08-20	MI Senate	AARP	600 LV	48%	47%	D+1
2026-08-18	MN Senate	Deep Root Analytics (R)	597 RV	50%	45%	D+5
2026-08-18	MN Senate	SurveyUSA	600 LV	46%	41%	D+5
2026-08-17	MI Senate	Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	800 LV	46%	39%	D+7
2026-08-17	MN Senate	KTSP/SurveyUSA	661 LV	46%	41%	D+5
2026-08-13	MI Senate	Fox News	600 LV	47%	51%	R+4
2026-08-11	MI Senate	Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)	877 LV	48%	47%	D+1
2026-08-10	MI Senate	GBAO (D)	800 LV	50%	44%	D+6
2026-08-10	MI Senate	TIPP Insights (R)	1528 RV	43%	39%	D+4
2026-08-10	MI Senate	Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)	1006 RV	47%	51%	R+4
2026-07-31	MI Senate	EPIC-MRA	600 LV	43%	46%	R+3
2026-07-30	MI Senate	SoCal Strategies (R)	640 LV	41%	42%	R+1
2026-07-29	MI Senate	Mitchell Research & Communications	672 LV	45%	45%	D+0
2026-07-24	MI Senate	Glengariff Group	600 LV	39%	49%	R+10
2026-06-30	MI-7	Data for Progress (D)	772.0 LV	46%	47%	R+1
2026-06-30	MI Senate	Quantus Insights (R)	947 LV	45%	44%	D+1
2026-06-25	WI-3	FM3 Research (D)	535.0 LV	50%	46%	D+4
2026-06-22	MI Senate	Data for Progress (D)	709 LV	47%	46%	D+1
2026-06-21	MN-2	Harper Polling (R)	415.0 LV	45%	40%	D+5
2026-06-14	MI Senate	Zenith Research (D)	602 LV	45%	42%	D+3
2026-06-13	MI Senate	Mitchell Research & Communications	827 LV	47%	42%	D+5
2026-06-04	MI Senate	Tulchin Research (D)	500 LV	46%	41%	D+5
2026-06-01	MI-4	GBAO (D)	500.0 LV	48%	45%	D+3
2026-05-31	WI-3	Impact Research (D)	500.0 LV	50%	46%	D+4
2026-05-28	WI-6	Tavern Research (D)	437.0 LV	39%	61%	R+22
2026-05-28	MN Senate	Impact Research (D)	808 LV	51%	44%	D+7

Methodology

Structural Model (Elastic Net): dem_share = 48.1 + 0.41 × partisan_lean + 7.1 × incumbency
Partisan Lean: Based on 2022-2024 US House results relative to state average
Incumbency Bonus: +7.1 points for incumbent party (trained on 2022-2024 data)
Open Seats: Higher uncertainty, no incumbency advantage
Poll Blending: Structural 90% at 180+ days → 20% at 7 days
Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulations with within-state (0.85) and cross-state (0.60) correlations
Time-Varying Uncertainty: Error SD increases from ~4.7 near election to ~8.9 one year out

Rating Scale: Safe (>95%), Likely (80-95%), Leans (60-80%), Tossup (40-60%) | FiveThirtyEight Standard

Model Validation: Backtest on 2024 races: RMSE 6.1 pts, 89.7% correct winners

Michigan (13 Districts)

Minnesota (8 Districts)

Wisconsin (8 Districts)

U.S. Senate (2 Races) PRELIMINARY

Recent Polls

Methodology