Congressional Forecast - MI, MN, WI

Michigan (13 Districts)

MI-1

85% R

R+6.7

Likely R

R inc

MI-2

95% R

R+10.6

Safe R

R inc

MI-3

95% D

D+10.7

Safe D

D inc

MI-4

72% R

R+3.7

Leans R

R inc

MI-5

96% R

R+11.0

Safe R

R inc

MI-6

99% D

D+19.4

Safe D

D inc

MI-7

81% D

D+5.6

Likely D

D inc

MI-8

97% D

D+12.2

Safe D

D inc

MI-9

98% R

R+13.2

Safe R

R inc

MI-10

62% R

R+2.1

Tilts R

R inc

MI-11

99% D

D+16.5

Safe D

D inc

MI-12

99% D

D+26.1

Safe D

D inc

MI-13

99% D

D+25.6

Safe D

D inc

Minnesota (8 Districts)

MN-1

84% R

R+6.3

Likely R

R inc

MN-2

99% D

D+14.0

Safe D

D inc

MN-3

99% D

D+15.7

Safe D

D inc

MN-4

99% D

D+21.8

Safe D

D inc

MN-5

99% D

D+27.1

Safe D

D inc

MN-6

90% R

R+8.2

Likely R

R inc

MN-7

98% R

R+13.2

Safe R

R inc

MN-8

80% R

R+5.5

Likely R

R inc

Wisconsin (8 Districts)

WI-1

69% R

R+3.2

Leans R

R inc

WI-2

99% D

D+24.0

Safe D

D inc

WI-3

60% D

D+1.5

Tilts D

R inc

WI-4

99% D

D+29.0

Safe D

D inc

WI-5

91% R

R+8.2

Likely R

R inc

WI-6

80% R

R+5.3

Leans R

R inc

WI-7

90% R

R+8.3

Likely R

R inc

WI-8

66% R

R+2.7

Leans R

R inc

Recent Polls

Date	District	Pollster	Sample	Dem	Rep	Margin
2026-03-23 00:00:00	MI-4	Ragnar Research	600.0 LV	42%	48%	R+6
2026-03-23 00:00:00	MN-1	Ragnar Research	600.0 LV	42%	52%	R+10
2026-03-16 00:00:00	WI-1	Ragnar Research	600.0 LV	41%	50%	R+9
2026-01-28 00:00:00	MI-7	EPIC-MRA	600.0 LV	49%	46%	D+3
2026-01-25 00:00:00	MI-3	Mitchell Research	500.0 LV	52%	44%	D+6
2026-01-22 00:00:00	MN-2	SurveyUSA	550.0 LV	53%	43%	D+10
2026-01-20 00:00:00	WI-3	Marquette Law School	800.0 LV	51%	45%	D+6

Methodology

Structural Model (Elastic Net): dem_share = 48.1 + 0.41 × partisan_lean + 7.1 × incumbency
Partisan Lean: Based on 2022-2024 US House results relative to state average
Incumbency Bonus: +7.1 points for incumbent party (trained on 2022-2024 data)
Open Seats: Higher uncertainty, no incumbency advantage
Poll Blending: Structural 90% at 180+ days → 20% at 7 days
Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulations with within-state (0.85) and cross-state (0.60) correlations
Time-Varying Uncertainty: Error SD increases from ~4.7 near election to ~8.9 one year out

Rating Scale: Safe (>95%), Likely (80-95%), Leans (60-80%), Tossup (40-60%) | FiveThirtyEight Standard

Model Validation: Backtest on 2024 races: RMSE 6.1 pts, 89.7% correct winners