Democrats on top (100%), Republicans on bottom (0%), Tossup at 50%
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | 1753K | D+21.1 | Safe D |
| Oakland | 1255K | D+5.5 | Leans D |
| Macomb | 871K | D+0.5 | Tilts D |
| Kent | 653K | R+0.8 | Tilts R |
| Genesee | 407K | D+10.8 | Likely D |
| Washtenaw | 368K | D+21.3 | Safe D |
| Ingham | 291K | D+15.9 | Safe D |
| Ottawa | 289K | R+14.4 | Likely R |
| Kalamazoo | 264K | D+7.8 | Leans D |
| Saginaw | 191K | D+4.0 | Leans D |
| Livingston | 191K | R+10.6 | Likely R |
| Muskegon | 174K | D+5.4 | Leans D |
| St. Clair | 159K | R+7.3 | Leans R |
| Jackson | 158K | R+5.3 | Leans R |
| Berrien | 154K | R+4.3 | Leans R |
| Monroe | 150K | R+4.5 | Leans R |
| Calhoun | 134K | R+1.4 | Tilts R |
| Allegan | 117K | R+11.5 | Likely R |
| Eaton | 110K | D+1.3 | Tilts D |
| Bay | 104K | D+1.2 | Tilts D |
| Lenawee | 98K | R+5.8 | Leans R |
| Grand Traverse | 93K | R+2.9 | Tilts R |
| Lapeer | 88K | R+11.1 | Likely R |
| Midland | 83K | R+6.7 | Leans R |
| Clinton | 79K | R+3.2 | Leans R |
| Van Buren | 75K | R+3.0 | Leans R |
| Isabella | 70K | D+1.6 | Tilts D |
| Shiawassee | 68K | R+4.2 | Leans R |
| Marquette | 66K | D+7.6 | Leans D |
| Ionia | 64K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Montcalm | 64K | R+10.9 | Likely R |
| Barry | 61K | R+11.5 | Likely R |
| St. Joseph | 61K | R+11.4 | Likely R |
| Tuscola | 53K | R+10.5 | Likely R |
| Cass | 52K | R+11.1 | Likely R |
| Newaygo | 49K | R+14.3 | Likely R |
| Hillsdale | 46K | R+17.1 | Safe R |
| Mecosta | 43K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Branch | 43K | R+13.3 | Likely R |
| Sanilac | 41K | R+14.9 | Likely R |
| Gratiot | 41K | R+7.0 | Leans R |
| Chippewa | 37K | R+5.5 | Leans R |
| Houghton | 36K | R+4.1 | Leans R |
| Delta | 36K | R+5.9 | Leans R |
| Wexford | 33K | R+11.3 | Likely R |
| Emmet | 33K | R+6.4 | Leans R |
| Huron | 31K | R+11.6 | Likely R |
| Clare | 31K | R+8.9 | Likely R |
| Mason | 29K | R+6.5 | Leans R |
| Alpena | 28K | R+5.4 | Leans R |
| Oceana | 27K | R+9.2 | Likely R |
| Charlevoix | 26K | R+7.4 | Leans R |
| Cheboygan | 25K | R+9.3 | Likely R |
| Dickinson | 25K | R+11.3 | Likely R |
| Gladwin | 25K | R+9.4 | Likely R |
| Iosco | 25K | R+6.1 | Leans R |
| Otsego | 25K | R+12.6 | Likely R |
| Manistee | 25K | R+2.0 | Tilts R |
| Roscommon | 24K | R+7.9 | Leans R |
| Osceola | 23K | R+16.7 | Safe R |
| Antrim | 23K | R+10.1 | Likely R |
| Menominee | 23K | R+8.0 | Leans R |
| Leelanau | 22K | D+0.4 | Tilts D |
| Ogemaw | 21K | R+9.7 | Likely R |
| Kalkaska | 18K | R+14.5 | Likely R |
| Benzie | 18K | R+2.3 | Tilts R |
| Missaukee | 15K | R+21.6 | Safe R |
| Arenac | 15K | R+8.0 | Likely R |
| Gogebic | 15K | D+1.3 | Tilts D |
| Crawford | 14K | R+9.7 | Likely R |
| Presque Isle | 13K | R+7.0 | Leans R |
| Lake | 12K | R+5.8 | Leans R |
| Iron | 11K | R+6.1 | Leans R |
| Mackinac | 11K | R+7.6 | Leans R |
| Alcona | 10K | R+12.4 | Likely R |
| Montmorency | 9K | R+14.0 | Likely R |
| Alger | 9K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Baraga | 8K | R+6.6 | Leans R |
| Oscoda | 8K | R+14.2 | Likely R |
| Schoolcraft | 8K | R+6.5 | Leans R |
| Luce | 6K | R+13.3 | Likely R |
| Ontonagon | 6K | R+5.5 | Leans R |
| Keweenaw | 2K | R+0.1 | Tilts R |
| Shiawasseee | 0 | R+3.1 | Leans R |
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin | 1255K | D+18.2 | Safe D |
| Ramsey | 547K | D+20.8 | Safe D |
| Dakota | 425K | D+5.8 | Leans D |
| Anoka | 354K | D+2.3 | Tilts D |
| Washington | 259K | D+5.0 | Leans D |
| St. Louis | 199K | D+18.6 | Safe D |
| Stearns | 160K | R+3.5 | Leans R |
| Olmsted | 156K | D+4.9 | Leans D |
| Scott | 147K | R+2.4 | Tilts R |
| Wright | 136K | R+7.5 | Leans R |
| Carver | 104K | R+4.0 | Leans R |
| Sherburne | 96K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Blue Earth | 67K | D+7.3 | Leans D |
| Rice | 67K | D+8.0 | Leans D |
| Crow Wing | 65K | R+3.8 | Leans R |
| Clay | 64K | D+7.8 | Leans D |
| Otter Tail | 58K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Chisago | 56K | R+4.0 | Leans R |
| Winona | 51K | D+6.1 | Leans D |
| Beltrami | 47K | D+5.6 | Leans D |
| Goodhue | 46K | D+0.4 | Tilts D |
| Itasca | 45K | D+7.0 | Leans D |
| Kandiyohi | 43K | R+1.6 | Tilts R |
| Benton | 40K | R+4.9 | Leans R |
| Isanti | 40K | R+6.6 | Leans R |
| Mower | 40K | D+10.2 | Likely D |
| Douglas | 38K | R+5.9 | Leans R |
| Steele | 37K | R+2.1 | Tilts R |
| Mcleod | 36K | R+8.3 | Likely R |
| Carlton | 36K | D+14.2 | Likely D |
| Becker | 34K | R+4.5 | Leans R |
| Nicollet | 34K | D+7.1 | Leans D |
| Morrison | 33K | R+10.2 | Likely R |
| Polk | 31K | D+0.4 | Tilts D |
| Freeborn | 30K | D+5.7 | Leans D |
| Cass | 29K | R+4.3 | Leans R |
| Pine | 29K | D+0.9 | Tilts D |
| Le Sueur | 28K | R+1.9 | Tilts R |
| Mille Lacs | 26K | R+4.3 | Leans R |
| Lyon | 26K | R+3.0 | Tilts R |
| Brown | 25K | R+5.8 | Leans R |
| Todd | 25K | R+7.5 | Leans R |
| Meeker | 23K | R+6.4 | Leans R |
| Nobles | 22K | R+2.4 | Tilts R |
| Wabasha | 22K | R+1.3 | Tilts R |
| Hubbard | 21K | R+4.7 | Leans R |
| Fillmore | 21K | D+2.0 | Tilts D |
| Dodge | 21K | R+4.8 | Leans R |
| Martin | 20K | R+7.0 | Leans R |
| Houston | 19K | D+0.7 | Tilts D |
| Waseca | 19K | R+3.1 | Leans R |
| Kanabec | 16K | R+4.0 | Leans R |
| Aitkin | 16K | D+1.6 | Tilts D |
| Roseau | 15K | R+9.4 | Likely R |
| Redwood | 15K | R+8.8 | Likely R |
| Sibley | 15K | R+7.4 | Leans R |
| Renville | 15K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Pennington | 14K | D+0.8 | Tilts D |
| Faribault | 14K | R+3.0 | Leans R |
| Wadena | 14K | R+9.8 | Likely R |
| Koochiching | 12K | D+5.9 | Leans D |
| Chippewa | 12K | D+2.8 | Tilts D |
| Cottonwood | 11K | R+4.0 | Leans R |
| Pope | 11K | D+0.9 | Tilts D |
| Watonwan | 11K | D+1.6 | Tilts D |
| Lake | 11K | D+13.9 | Likely D |
| Jackson | 10K | R+2.9 | Tilts R |
| Yellow Medicine | 10K | R+0.1 | Tilts R |
| Stevens | 10K | D+0.6 | Tilts D |
| Rock | 9K | R+7.6 | Leans R |
| Marshall | 9K | R+2.0 | Tilts R |
| Swift | 9K | D+5.4 | Leans D |
| Pipestone | 9K | R+9.7 | Likely R |
| Clearwater | 9K | R+6.5 | Leans R |
| Murray | 8K | R+2.4 | Tilts R |
| Lac Qui Parle | 7K | D+4.1 | Leans D |
| Norman | 6K | D+8.7 | Likely D |
| Wilkin | 6K | R+6.0 | Leans R |
| Grant | 6K | D+1.3 | Tilts D |
| Lincoln | 6K | R+0.5 | Tilts R |
| Mahnomen | 6K | D+9.4 | Likely D |
| Cook | 5K | D+16.4 | Safe D |
| Big Stone | 5K | D+3.2 | Leans D |
| Kittson | 4K | D+7.2 | Leans D |
| Red Lake | 4K | D+3.0 | Tilts D |
| Lake Of The Woods | 4K | R+6.2 | Leans R |
| Traverse | 3K | D+2.9 | Tilts D |
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 949K | D+19.2 | Safe D |
| Dane | 542K | D+26.0 | Safe D |
| Waukesha | 403K | R+14.9 | Likely R |
| Brown | 263K | R+3.4 | Leans R |
| Racine | 196K | R+1.5 | Tilts R |
| Outagamie | 187K | R+4.6 | Leans R |
| Winnebago | 171K | R+1.5 | Tilts R |
| Kenosha | 169K | D+1.4 | Tilts D |
| Rock | 163K | D+8.5 | Likely D |
| Washington | 136K | R+21.0 | Safe R |
| Marathon | 135K | R+7.8 | Leans R |
| La Crosse | 118K | D+7.2 | Leans D |
| Sheboygan | 115K | R+8.4 | Likely R |
| Eau Claire | 104K | D+6.3 | Leans D |
| Walworth | 103K | R+10.0 | Likely R |
| Fond Du Lac | 103K | R+12.3 | Likely R |
| St. Croix | 90K | R+8.4 | Likely R |
| Ozaukee | 89K | R+11.2 | Likely R |
| Dodge | 88K | R+13.2 | Likely R |
| Jefferson | 85K | R+6.7 | Leans R |
| Manitowoc | 79K | R+8.8 | Likely R |
| Wood | 73K | R+6.4 | Leans R |
| Portage | 71K | D+4.0 | Leans D |
| Chippewa | 64K | R+6.5 | Leans R |
| Sauk | 64K | D+3.7 | Leans D |
| Columbia | 57K | D+2.4 | Tilts D |
| Grant | 52K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Waupaca | 51K | R+12.9 | Likely R |
| Calumet | 50K | R+9.9 | Likely R |
| Monroe | 46K | R+8.0 | Leans R |
| Barron | 45K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Dunn | 45K | R+3.0 | Tilts R |
| Polk | 44K | R+10.4 | Likely R |
| Douglas | 43K | D+9.7 | Likely D |
| Pierce | 42K | R+3.7 | Leans R |
| Shawano | 41K | R+14.3 | Likely R |
| Marinette | 40K | R+12.7 | Likely R |
| Oconto | 38K | R+15.5 | Safe R |
| Green | 37K | D+4.9 | Leans D |
| Oneida | 35K | R+6.1 | Leans R |
| Clark | 35K | R+13.6 | Likely R |
| Vernon | 31K | D+1.4 | Tilts D |
| Trempealeau | 30K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Lincoln | 28K | R+7.6 | Leans R |
| Door | 28K | D+0.8 | Tilts D |
| Juneau | 27K | R+8.5 | Likely R |
| Waushara | 24K | R+13.4 | Likely R |
| Iowa | 24K | D+9.8 | Likely D |
| Vilas | 22K | R+10.7 | Likely R |
| Jackson | 21K | R+2.1 | Tilts R |
| Kewaunee | 20K | R+11.3 | Likely R |
| Taylor | 20K | R+19.3 | Safe R |
| Adams | 20K | R+6.6 | Leans R |
| Langlade | 19K | R+13.6 | Likely R |
| Green Lake | 19K | R+16.3 | Safe R |
| Richland | 17K | D+0.1 | Tilts D |
| Lafayette | 17K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Sawyer | 16K | R+5.2 | Leans R |
| Crawford | 16K | D+1.4 | Tilts D |
| Washburn | 16K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Ashland | 16K | D+10.7 | Likely D |
| Marquette | 15K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Burnett | 15K | R+11.0 | Likely R |
| Bayfield | 15K | D+9.9 | Likely D |
| Rusk | 14K | R+12.2 | Likely R |
| Price | 13K | R+8.9 | Likely R |
| Buffalo | 13K | R+8.0 | Likely R |
| Forest | 9K | R+9.4 | Likely R |
| Pepin | 7K | R+7.7 | Leans R |
| Iron | 6K | R+8.0 | Leans R |
| Menominee | 5K | D+30.7 | Safe D |
| Florence | 4K | R+20.2 | Safe R |
| St Croix | 0 | R+6.3 | Leans R |
| Date | State | Pollster | Sample | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 00:00:00 | MN | RCP Average | 1000 LV | 50% | 36% | D+11 |
| 2026-02-08 00:00:00 | MN | Emerson College | 1000 LV | 51% | 38% | D+11 |
| 2026-02-02 00:00:00 | MN | SurveyUSA | 575 RV | 49% | 35% | D+11 |
| 2026-02-02 00:00:00 | MN | SurveyUSA | 575 RV | 50% | 32% | D+14 |
| 2026-02-02 00:00:00 | MN | SurveyUSA | 575 RV | 49% | 34% | D+12 |
| 2026-01-15 00:00:00 | WI | Marquette Law (projected) | 846 RV | 47% | 45% | D+0 |
| 2026-01-13 00:00:00 | MI | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 48% | 51% | R+3 |
| 2025-12-02 00:00:00 | MI | Mitchell Research | 616 LV | 46% | 54% | R+6 |
| 2025-11-14 00:00:00 | MI | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 49% | 51% | R+2 |
| 2025-11-06 00:00:00 | MI | Rosetta Stone | 637 LV | 47% | 53% | R+3 |
Rating Scale: Safe (>95%), Likely (80-95%), Leans (60-80%), Tossup (40-60%) | FiveThirtyEight Standard
Best deployed: After August primaries when actual candidates are known