Democrats on top (100%), Republicans on bottom (0%), Tossup at 50%
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | 1753K | D+19.4 | Safe D |
| Oakland | 1255K | D+3.9 | Leans D |
| Macomb | 871K | R+1.1 | Tilts R |
| Kent | 653K | R+2.5 | Tilts R |
| Genesee | 407K | D+9.2 | Likely D |
| Washtenaw | 368K | D+19.7 | Safe D |
| Ingham | 291K | D+14.2 | Likely D |
| Ottawa | 289K | R+16.1 | Safe R |
| Kalamazoo | 264K | D+6.2 | Leans D |
| Saginaw | 191K | D+2.3 | Tilts D |
| Livingston | 191K | R+12.2 | Likely R |
| Muskegon | 174K | D+3.8 | Leans D |
| St. Clair | 159K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Jackson | 158K | R+7.0 | Leans R |
| Berrien | 154K | R+5.9 | Leans R |
| Monroe | 150K | R+6.1 | Leans R |
| Calhoun | 134K | R+3.1 | Leans R |
| Allegan | 117K | R+13.1 | Likely R |
| Eaton | 110K | R+0.4 | Tilts R |
| Bay | 104K | R+0.5 | Tilts R |
| Lenawee | 98K | R+7.4 | Leans R |
| Grand Traverse | 93K | R+4.5 | Leans R |
| Lapeer | 88K | R+12.7 | Likely R |
| Midland | 83K | R+8.4 | Likely R |
| Clinton | 79K | R+4.9 | Leans R |
| Van Buren | 75K | R+4.7 | Leans R |
| Isabella | 70K | R+0.1 | Tilts R |
| Shiawassee | 68K | R+5.9 | Leans R |
| Marquette | 66K | D+5.9 | Leans D |
| Ionia | 64K | R+10.3 | Likely R |
| Montcalm | 64K | R+12.6 | Likely R |
| Barry | 61K | R+13.1 | Likely R |
| St. Joseph | 61K | R+13.1 | Likely R |
| Tuscola | 53K | R+12.2 | Likely R |
| Cass | 52K | R+12.8 | Likely R |
| Newaygo | 49K | R+16.0 | Safe R |
| Hillsdale | 46K | R+18.7 | Safe R |
| Mecosta | 43K | R+10.6 | Likely R |
| Branch | 43K | R+14.9 | Likely R |
| Sanilac | 41K | R+16.5 | Safe R |
| Gratiot | 41K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Chippewa | 37K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Houghton | 36K | R+5.7 | Leans R |
| Delta | 36K | R+7.5 | Leans R |
| Wexford | 33K | R+13.0 | Likely R |
| Emmet | 33K | R+8.0 | Likely R |
| Huron | 31K | R+13.3 | Likely R |
| Clare | 31K | R+10.5 | Likely R |
| Mason | 29K | R+8.1 | Likely R |
| Alpena | 28K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Oceana | 27K | R+10.8 | Likely R |
| Charlevoix | 26K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Cheboygan | 25K | R+11.0 | Likely R |
| Dickinson | 25K | R+13.0 | Likely R |
| Gladwin | 25K | R+11.0 | Likely R |
| Iosco | 25K | R+7.8 | Leans R |
| Otsego | 25K | R+14.2 | Likely R |
| Manistee | 25K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Roscommon | 24K | R+9.6 | Likely R |
| Osceola | 23K | R+18.3 | Safe R |
| Antrim | 23K | R+11.7 | Likely R |
| Menominee | 23K | R+9.6 | Likely R |
| Leelanau | 22K | R+1.2 | Tilts R |
| Ogemaw | 21K | R+11.3 | Likely R |
| Kalkaska | 18K | R+16.2 | Safe R |
| Benzie | 18K | R+3.9 | Leans R |
| Missaukee | 15K | R+23.3 | Safe R |
| Arenac | 15K | R+9.7 | Likely R |
| Gogebic | 15K | R+0.3 | Tilts R |
| Crawford | 14K | R+11.4 | Likely R |
| Presque Isle | 13K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Lake | 12K | R+7.5 | Leans R |
| Iron | 11K | R+7.7 | Leans R |
| Mackinac | 11K | R+9.3 | Likely R |
| Alcona | 10K | R+14.1 | Likely R |
| Montmorency | 9K | R+15.6 | Safe R |
| Alger | 9K | R+3.4 | Leans R |
| Baraga | 8K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Oscoda | 8K | R+15.8 | Safe R |
| Schoolcraft | 8K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Luce | 6K | R+15.0 | Likely R |
| Ontonagon | 6K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Keweenaw | 2K | R+1.8 | Tilts R |
| Shiawasseee | 0 | R+4.8 | Leans R |
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin | 1255K | D+17.0 | Safe D |
| Ramsey | 547K | D+19.5 | Safe D |
| Dakota | 425K | D+4.5 | Leans D |
| Anoka | 354K | D+1.1 | Tilts D |
| Washington | 259K | D+3.8 | Leans D |
| St. Louis | 199K | D+17.4 | Safe D |
| Stearns | 160K | R+4.7 | Leans R |
| Olmsted | 156K | D+3.7 | Leans D |
| Scott | 147K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Wright | 136K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Carver | 104K | R+5.2 | Leans R |
| Sherburne | 96K | R+9.9 | Likely R |
| Blue Earth | 67K | D+6.1 | Leans D |
| Rice | 67K | D+6.8 | Leans D |
| Crow Wing | 65K | R+5.1 | Leans R |
| Clay | 64K | D+6.6 | Leans D |
| Otter Tail | 58K | R+8.3 | Likely R |
| Chisago | 56K | R+5.3 | Leans R |
| Winona | 51K | D+4.9 | Leans D |
| Beltrami | 47K | D+4.4 | Leans D |
| Goodhue | 46K | R+0.8 | Tilts R |
| Itasca | 45K | D+5.7 | Leans D |
| Kandiyohi | 43K | R+2.8 | Tilts R |
| Benton | 40K | R+6.1 | Leans R |
| Isanti | 40K | R+7.8 | Leans R |
| Mower | 40K | D+9.0 | Likely D |
| Douglas | 38K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Steele | 37K | R+3.3 | Leans R |
| Mcleod | 36K | R+9.5 | Likely R |
| Carlton | 36K | D+13.0 | Likely D |
| Becker | 34K | R+5.7 | Leans R |
| Nicollet | 34K | D+5.8 | Leans D |
| Morrison | 33K | R+11.4 | Likely R |
| Polk | 31K | R+0.8 | Tilts R |
| Freeborn | 30K | D+4.5 | Leans D |
| Cass | 29K | R+5.5 | Leans R |
| Pine | 29K | R+0.3 | Tilts R |
| Le Sueur | 28K | R+3.1 | Leans R |
| Mille Lacs | 26K | R+5.5 | Leans R |
| Lyon | 26K | R+4.2 | Leans R |
| Brown | 25K | R+7.1 | Leans R |
| Todd | 25K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Meeker | 23K | R+7.6 | Leans R |
| Nobles | 22K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Wabasha | 22K | R+2.5 | Tilts R |
| Hubbard | 21K | R+5.9 | Leans R |
| Fillmore | 21K | D+0.8 | Tilts D |
| Dodge | 21K | R+6.0 | Leans R |
| Martin | 20K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Houston | 19K | R+0.5 | Tilts R |
| Waseca | 19K | R+4.3 | Leans R |
| Kanabec | 16K | R+5.2 | Leans R |
| Aitkin | 16K | D+0.4 | Tilts D |
| Roseau | 15K | R+10.6 | Likely R |
| Redwood | 15K | R+10.0 | Likely R |
| Sibley | 15K | R+8.6 | Likely R |
| Renville | 15K | R+2.9 | Tilts R |
| Pennington | 14K | R+0.4 | Tilts R |
| Faribault | 14K | R+4.2 | Leans R |
| Wadena | 14K | R+11.0 | Likely R |
| Koochiching | 12K | D+4.6 | Leans D |
| Chippewa | 12K | D+1.6 | Tilts D |
| Cottonwood | 11K | R+5.2 | Leans R |
| Pope | 11K | R+0.3 | Tilts R |
| Watonwan | 11K | D+0.4 | Tilts D |
| Lake | 11K | D+12.7 | Likely D |
| Jackson | 10K | R+4.1 | Leans R |
| Yellow Medicine | 10K | R+1.3 | Tilts R |
| Stevens | 10K | R+0.6 | Tilts R |
| Rock | 9K | R+8.8 | Likely R |
| Marshall | 9K | R+3.2 | Leans R |
| Swift | 9K | D+4.2 | Leans D |
| Pipestone | 9K | R+10.9 | Likely R |
| Clearwater | 9K | R+7.7 | Leans R |
| Murray | 8K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Lac Qui Parle | 7K | D+2.9 | Tilts D |
| Norman | 6K | D+7.4 | Leans D |
| Wilkin | 6K | R+7.2 | Leans R |
| Grant | 6K | D+0.1 | Tilts D |
| Lincoln | 6K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Mahnomen | 6K | D+8.2 | Likely D |
| Cook | 5K | D+15.2 | Safe D |
| Big Stone | 5K | D+2.0 | Tilts D |
| Kittson | 4K | D+6.0 | Leans D |
| Red Lake | 4K | D+1.8 | Tilts D |
| Lake Of The Woods | 4K | R+7.4 | Leans R |
| Traverse | 3K | D+1.7 | Tilts D |
| County | Pop. | Margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | 949K | D+19.0 | Safe D |
| Dane | 542K | D+25.8 | Safe D |
| Waukesha | 403K | R+15.1 | Safe R |
| Brown | 263K | R+3.6 | Leans R |
| Racine | 196K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Outagamie | 187K | R+4.8 | Leans R |
| Winnebago | 171K | R+1.7 | Tilts R |
| Kenosha | 169K | D+1.1 | Tilts D |
| Rock | 163K | D+8.3 | Likely D |
| Washington | 136K | R+21.2 | Safe R |
| Marathon | 135K | R+8.0 | Likely R |
| La Crosse | 118K | D+7.0 | Leans D |
| Sheboygan | 115K | R+8.6 | Likely R |
| Eau Claire | 104K | D+6.0 | Leans D |
| Walworth | 103K | R+10.2 | Likely R |
| Fond Du Lac | 103K | R+12.5 | Likely R |
| St. Croix | 90K | R+8.6 | Likely R |
| Ozaukee | 89K | R+11.4 | Likely R |
| Dodge | 88K | R+13.4 | Likely R |
| Jefferson | 85K | R+7.0 | Leans R |
| Manitowoc | 79K | R+9.0 | Likely R |
| Wood | 73K | R+6.6 | Leans R |
| Portage | 71K | D+3.8 | Leans D |
| Chippewa | 64K | R+6.7 | Leans R |
| Sauk | 64K | D+3.5 | Leans D |
| Columbia | 57K | D+2.1 | Tilts D |
| Grant | 52K | R+1.9 | Tilts R |
| Waupaca | 51K | R+13.1 | Likely R |
| Calumet | 50K | R+10.1 | Likely R |
| Monroe | 46K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Barron | 45K | R+9.2 | Likely R |
| Dunn | 45K | R+3.2 | Leans R |
| Polk | 44K | R+10.6 | Likely R |
| Douglas | 43K | D+9.4 | Likely D |
| Pierce | 42K | R+3.9 | Leans R |
| Shawano | 41K | R+14.6 | Likely R |
| Marinette | 40K | R+12.9 | Likely R |
| Oconto | 38K | R+15.7 | Safe R |
| Green | 37K | D+4.7 | Leans D |
| Oneida | 35K | R+6.4 | Leans R |
| Clark | 35K | R+13.8 | Likely R |
| Vernon | 31K | D+1.2 | Tilts D |
| Trempealeau | 30K | R+3.8 | Leans R |
| Lincoln | 28K | R+7.8 | Leans R |
| Door | 28K | D+0.5 | Tilts D |
| Juneau | 27K | R+8.7 | Likely R |
| Waushara | 24K | R+13.6 | Likely R |
| Iowa | 24K | D+9.6 | Likely D |
| Vilas | 22K | R+10.9 | Likely R |
| Jackson | 21K | R+2.3 | Tilts R |
| Kewaunee | 20K | R+11.5 | Likely R |
| Taylor | 20K | R+19.5 | Safe R |
| Adams | 20K | R+6.8 | Leans R |
| Langlade | 19K | R+13.8 | Likely R |
| Green Lake | 19K | R+16.6 | Safe R |
| Richland | 17K | R+0.1 | Tilts R |
| Lafayette | 17K | R+1.9 | Tilts R |
| Sawyer | 16K | R+5.4 | Leans R |
| Crawford | 16K | D+1.2 | Tilts D |
| Washburn | 16K | R+8.4 | Likely R |
| Ashland | 16K | D+10.4 | Likely D |
| Marquette | 15K | R+9.2 | Likely R |
| Burnett | 15K | R+11.2 | Likely R |
| Bayfield | 15K | D+9.6 | Likely D |
| Rusk | 14K | R+12.4 | Likely R |
| Price | 13K | R+9.1 | Likely R |
| Buffalo | 13K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Forest | 9K | R+9.6 | Likely R |
| Pepin | 7K | R+7.9 | Leans R |
| Iron | 6K | R+8.2 | Likely R |
| Menominee | 5K | D+30.5 | Safe D |
| Florence | 4K | R+20.4 | Safe R |
| St Croix | 0 | R+6.5 | Leans R |
| Date | State | Pollster | Sample | Dem | Rep | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | WI | Marquette Law School | 600 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-20 | WI | Marquette University | 738 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-20 | MI | AARP | 600 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-18 | MI | TIPP | 600 LV | 53% | 37% | D+16 |
| 2026-08-18 | MN | SurveyUSA | 600 LV | 52% | 36% | D+16 |
| 2026-08-18 | WI | TIPP Insights (R) | 1199 LV | 47% | 43% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-17 | MN | KTSP/SurveyUSA | 661 LV | 51% | 36% | D+15 |
| 2026-08-16 | WI | Badger Battleground | 600 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-13 | MI | Fox News | 600 LV | 52% | 47% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-13 | WI | Platform Communications (R) | 500 LV | 48% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-08-11 | MI | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) | 877 LV | 49% | 44% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-10 | MI | Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1006 RV | 52% | 47% | D+5 |
| 2026-08-10 | MI | TIPP Insights (R) | 1528 RV | 48% | 34% | D+14 |
| 2026-08-03 | WI | GBAO (D) | 800 LV | 47% | 44% | D+3 |
| 2026-07-31 | MI | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 47% | 38% | D+9 |
| 2026-07-29 | MI | Mitchell Research | 672 LV | 46% | 44% | D+4 |
| 2026-07-24 | MI | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 44% | 39% | D+5 |
| 2026-07-24 | WI | RMG Research | 800 RV | 46% | 43% | D+3 |
| 2026-06-15 | MN | Mason-Dixon | 600 LV | 53% | 36% | D+17 |
| 2026-06-13 | MI | Mitchell Research | 827 LV | 51% | 40% | D+13 |
| 2026-06-10 | MN | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | 48% | 40% | D+8 |
Rating Scale: Safe (>95%), Likely (80-95%), Leans (60-80%), Tossup (40-60%) | FiveThirtyEight Standard
Best deployed: After August primaries when actual candidates are known