📅 Preview Mode: This forecast reflects structural baselines only. Live polling data and active forecast updates begin Late August 2026. Model methodology and historical context are fully functional.

Michigan State Legislature

2026 Election Forecast

Updated 2026-03-17
Whitmer: +15 (open seat)
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Tossup
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

House of Representatives

60 Expected D
9 Tossup
50 Expected R
20 20 17 9 12 22 10
District Candidates Margin Win Prob Rating Inc
1 Candidates TBD D+24.6 98% D Safe D D
2 Candidates TBD D+21.6 96% D Safe D D
3 Candidates TBD D+26.4 99% D Safe D D
4 Candidates TBD D+40.9 99% D Safe D D
5 Candidates TBD D+32.4 99% D Safe D D
6 Candidates TBD D+29.4 99% D Safe D D
7 Candidates TBD D+37.9 99% D Safe D D
8 Candidates TBD D+33.0 99% D Safe D D
9 Candidates TBD D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
10 Candidates TBD D+33.4 99% D Safe D D
11 Candidates TBD D+24.5 99% D Safe D D
12 Candidates TBD D+23.7 99% D Safe D D
13 Candidates TBD D+15.1 92% D Likely D D
14 Candidates TBD D+22.2 98% D Safe D D
15 Candidates TBD D+19.7 94% D Likely D D
16 Candidates TBD D+24.9 99% D Safe D D
17 Candidates TBD D+11.9 83% D Likely D D
18 Candidates TBD D+21.9 96% D Safe D D
19 Candidates TBD D+6.3 68% D Lean D D
20 Candidates TBD D+8.3 75% D Lean D D
21 Candidates TBD D+11.1 88% D Likely D D
22 Candidates TBD D+18.6 94% D Likely D D
23 Candidates TBD D+10.7 82% D Likely D D
24 Candidates TBD D+8.2 75% D Lean D D
25 Candidates TBD D+11.0 85% D Likely D D
26 Candidates TBD D+16.8 95% D Safe D D
27 Candidates TBD D+15.9 90% D Likely D R
28 Candidates TBD D+10.5 80% D Lean D R
29 Candidates TBD D+15.6 90% D Likely D R
30 Candidates TBD R+12.5 90% R Likely R R
31 Candidates TBD D+12.5 88% D Likely D D
32 Candidates TBD D+8.9 76% D Lean D D
33 Candidates TBD D+1.1 53% D Tossup D
34 Candidates TBD D+20.5 95% D Safe D R
35 Candidates TBD D+17.7 92% D Likely D R
36 Candidates TBD R+21.4 99% R Safe R R
37 Candidates TBD D+6.5 69% D Lean D R
38 Candidates TBD D+1.4 54% D Tossup D
39 Candidates TBD R+8.6 79% R Lean R R
40 Candidates TBD D+6.6 70% D Lean D D
41 Candidates TBD D+10.1 78% D Lean D D
42 Candidates TBD R+8.4 75% R Lean R R
43 Candidates TBD R+14.3 89% R Likely R R
44 Candidates TBD R+7.8 73% R Lean R D
45 Candidates TBD R+15.4 92% R Likely R R
46 Candidates TBD R+16.5 92% R Likely R R
47 Candidates TBD R+6.5 71% R Lean R D
48 Candidates TBD D+11.6 86% D Likely D D
49 Candidates TBD D+11.4 82% D Likely D R
50 Candidates TBD D+3.1 59% D Tossup R
51 Candidates TBD R+13.1 92% R Likely R R
52 Candidates TBD D+3.4 60% D Lean D R
53 Candidates TBD D+33.8 99% D Safe D D
54 Candidates TBD D+15.1 89% D Likely D R
55 Candidates TBD D+10.6 80% D Likely D R
56 Candidates TBD D+8.1 74% D Lean D D
57 Candidates TBD R+8.8 77% R Lean R R
58 Candidates TBD R+19.4 94% R Likely R R
59 Candidates TBD R+19.3 98% R Safe R R
60 Candidates TBD D+11.8 83% D Likely D R
61 Candidates TBD D+6.4 74% D Lean D D
62 Candidates TBD D+1.0 53% D Tossup R
63 Candidates TBD R+14.2 92% R Likely R R
64 Candidates TBD R+11.0 82% R Likely R R
65 Candidates TBD R+14.9 89% R Likely R R
66 Candidates TBD R+15.7 92% R Likely R R
67 Candidates TBD D+2.0 56% D Tossup R
68 Candidates TBD D+15.9 90% D Likely D R
69 Candidates TBD D+19.3 97% D Safe D D
70 Candidates TBD D+8.9 76% D Lean D D
71 Candidates TBD R+8.6 79% R Lean R R
72 Candidates TBD R+15.3 92% R Likely R R
73 Candidates TBD R+4.5 64% R Lean R D
74 Candidates TBD R+5.4 67% R Lean R D
75 Candidates TBD D+22.9 97% D Safe D D
76 Candidates TBD D+15.7 90% D Likely D D
77 Candidates TBD R+2.8 59% R Tossup D
78 Candidates TBD R+16.2 94% R Likely R R
79 Candidates TBD R+14.1 92% R Likely R R
80 Candidates TBD R+4.7 65% R Lean R D
81 Candidates TBD R+3.1 60% R Lean R D
82 Candidates TBD D+5.5 67% D Lean D D
83 Candidates TBD D+1.1 53% D Tossup D
84 Candidates TBD D+6.3 69% D Lean D D
85 Candidates TBD R+15.7 92% R Likely R R
86 Candidates TBD R+17.8 95% R Safe R R
87 Candidates TBD R+7.4 72% R Lean R D
88 Candidates TBD R+22.1 96% R Safe R R
89 Candidates TBD R+20.4 99% R Safe R R
90 Candidates TBD R+22.3 98% R Safe R R
91 Candidates TBD R+10.3 80% R Likely R R
92 Candidates TBD D+10.9 81% D Likely D R
93 Candidates TBD R+17.3 95% R Likely R R
94 Candidates TBD D+5.9 68% D Lean D D
95 Candidates TBD D+13.1 86% D Likely D R
96 Candidates TBD D+8.3 75% D Lean D R
97 Candidates TBD R+19.4 98% R Safe R R
98 Candidates TBD R+15.7 90% R Likely R R
99 Candidates TBD R+13.3 89% R Likely R R
100 Candidates TBD R+19.8 98% R Safe R R
101 Candidates TBD R+9.2 78% R Lean R R
102 Candidates TBD R+18.2 96% R Safe R R
103 Candidates TBD D+2.1 56% D Tossup D
104 Candidates TBD R+11.6 85% R Likely R R
105 Candidates TBD R+21.4 99% R Safe R R
106 Candidates TBD R+14.0 87% R Likely R R
107 Candidates TBD R+11.5 82% R Likely R R
108 Candidates TBD R+12.6 85% R Likely R R
109 Candidates TBD D+9.1 77% D Lean D R
110 Candidates TBD R+1.0 54% R Tossup R

State Senate

20 Expected D
3 Tossup
18 Expected R
6 5 9 3 1 12 2
District Candidates Margin Win Prob Rating Inc
1 Candidates TBD D+27.6 99% D Safe D D
2 Candidates TBD D+26.8 99% D Safe D D
3 Candidates TBD D+36.1 99% D Safe D D
4 Candidates TBD D+27.5 99% D Safe D D
5 Candidates TBD D+32.5 99% D Safe D D
6 Candidates TBD D+17.8 95% D Likely D D
7 Candidates TBD D+11.3 81% D Likely D D
8 Candidates TBD D+11.1 81% D Likely D D
9 Candidates TBD D+10.3 79% D Lean D R
10 Candidates TBD D+9.4 77% D Lean D D
11 Candidates TBD D+16.0 90% D Likely D D
12 Candidates TBD D+6.5 72% D Lean D D
13 Candidates TBD D+8.7 76% D Lean D D
14 Candidates TBD D+10.3 79% D Lean D D
15 Candidates TBD D+9.7 78% D Lean D D
16 Candidates TBD R+16.8 98% R Safe R R
17 Candidates TBD R+12.0 88% R Likely R R
18 Candidates TBD D+12.0 83% D Likely D R
19 Candidates TBD D+3.6 61% D Lean D D
20 Candidates TBD R+4.3 64% R Lean R R
21 Candidates TBD D+2.3 57% D Tossup D
22 Candidates TBD R+14.9 93% R Likely R R
23 Candidates TBD D+10.3 79% D Lean D R
24 Candidates TBD R+13.9 89% R Likely R R
25 Candidates TBD R+16.0 94% R Likely R R
26 Candidates TBD R+13.6 94% R Likely R R
27 Candidates TBD D+25.6 99% D Safe D D
28 Candidates TBD R+1.5 55% R Tossup D
29 Candidates TBD D+10.4 79% D Lean D D
30 Candidates TBD R+18.6 94% R Likely R R
31 Candidates TBD R+12.1 90% R Likely R R
32 Candidates TBD R+7.8 84% R Likely R R
33 Candidates TBD R+15.8 94% R Likely R R
34 Candidates TBD R+10.9 85% R Likely R R
35 Candidates TBD D+0.5 52% D Tossup D
36 Candidates TBD R+17.0 98% R Safe R R
37 Candidates TBD R+13.2 92% R Likely R R
38 Candidates TBD R+12.0 90% R Likely R R
Election forecasts by loontracks.com
© 2026 Loon Tracks. Generated 2026-03-17 15:40.