Michigan State Legislature
2026 Election Forecast
2026 Election Forecast
| District | Candidates | Margin | Win Prob | Rating | Inc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrone Carter vs Valerie Whittaker | D+25.9 | 98% D | Safe D | D |
| 2 | Frank Liberati vs Ronald Kokinda | D+16.8 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 3 | Alabas Farhat vs Gus H. Tarraf | D+29.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 4 | Krystal Larsosa vs Everett Davis | D+41.5 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 5 | Crystal Bailey vs Chris Venable | D+38.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 6 | Charlie Gandy-Thompson vs Michael Steger | D+23.3 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 7 | Tonya Myers Phillips vs Reginald Moorer | D+42.4 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 8 | Helena Scott vs Bruce Langran | D+39.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 9 | Willie Burton vs Michele Lundgren | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 10 | Veronica Paiz vs Peter Ochs | D+30.2 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 11 | Cranstana Anderson vs Eddie Kabacinski | D+37.3 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 12 | Kimberly L. Edwards vs Brian Hakola | D+26.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 13 | Mai Xiong vs Casey Armitage | D+9.4 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 14 | Mike McFall vs Larry Szyska | D+13.5 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 15 | Jalal Abdallah vs Hassan Nehme | D+17.3 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 16 | Stephanie Young vs Brian Duggan | D+25.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 17 | Laurie Pohutsky vs Ken Crider | D+14.1 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 18 | Kelly Garrett vs Ryan Foster | D+22.3 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 19 | Samantha Steckloff vs Kevin Hammer | D+10.1 | 80% D | Likely D | D |
| 20 | Noah Arbit vs Hermon Barbe | D+7.2 | 73% D | Lean D | D |
| 21 | Kelly Breen vs Ross Barranco | D+12.6 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 22 | Lisa McIntyre vs Casey Noce | D+12.4 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 23 | Jason Morgan vs Miriam Corvino | D+11.4 | 84% D | Likely D | D |
| 24 | Ranjeev Puri vs Allison Fuller | D+8.2 | 76% D | Lean D | D |
| 25 | Peter Herzberg vs Dawn Udell | D+9.4 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 26 | Dylan Wegela vs Chris Dobis | D+17.4 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 27 | Jaime Churches vs Rylee Linting | D+9.1 | 78% D | Lean D | R |
| 28 | Sherry Berecz vs Jamie Thompson | D+5.4 | 68% D | Lean D | R |
| 29 | Darian Counts vs James DeSana | D+7.8 | 74% D | Lean D | R |
| 30 | Omar Ferdin vs William Bruck | R+13.0 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 31 | Shannon Wayne vs Laura Perry | D+9.6 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 32 | Jimmie Wilson Jr. vs Martin Church | D+11.2 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 33 | Morgan Foreman vs Catherine Rogers | D+8.7 | 77% D | Lean D | D |
| 34 | Nancy Jenkins-Arno (Uncontested) | R+45.0 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 35 | Jeff Cooley vs Jennifer Wortz | D+3.0 | 59% D | Tossup | R |
| 36 | Cole Slaski vs Steve Carra | R+21.9 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 37 | Angela Jones vs Brad Paquette | R+8.7 | 76% R | Lean R | R |
| 38 | Joey Andrews vs Mark Krieger | D+7.6 | 75% D | Lean D | D |
| 39 | Zachary Shinabargar vs Pauline Wendzel | R+7.7 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 40 | Matt Longjohn vs Robert Sitarski | D+8.4 | 76% D | Lean D | D |
| 41 | Jen Strebs vs Nicole Sabel | D+16.8 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 42 | Bill Korb vs Matt Hall | R+11.8 | 83% R | Likely R | R |
| 43 | Alan Swank vs Rachelle M. Smit | R+23.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 44 | Jim Haadsma vs Steve Frisbie | R+10.8 | 82% R | Likely R | R |
| 45 | Randy Davis vs Sarah Lightner | R+18.0 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 46 | Jan Maino vs Kathy Schmaltz | R+9.0 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 47 | Carrie Rheingans vs Justin Griffis | D+1.7 | 56% D | Tossup | D |
| 48 | Jennifer Conlin vs Brian Ignatowski | D+8.9 | 79% D | Lean D | D |
| 49 | Dan Pelchat vs Ann Bollin | D+4.4 | 64% D | Lean D | R |
| 50 | Cassie Canedo vs Jason Woolford | R+6.5 | 70% R | Lean R | R |
| 51 | Stacey McDuffie vs Matt Maddock | R+11.9 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 52 | Brendan Leddy vs Mike R. Harris | R+3.7 | 62% R | Lean R | R |
| 53 | Brenda Carter vs Melissa Schultz | D+30.9 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 54 | Sarah Pounds vs Roman Gaskey | D+10.7 | 81% D | Likely D | R |
| 55 | Alex Hawkins vs Mark Tisdel | D+7.4 | 73% D | Lean D | R |
| 56 | Sharon MacDonell vs Ashok Baddi | D+6.5 | 71% D | Lean D | D |
| 57 | Tom Turner vs Thomas Kuhn | R+11.1 | 82% R | Likely R | R |
| 58 | Katrina Manetta vs Ron Robinson | R+14.5 | 88% R | Likely R | R |
| 59 | Jason Robbins vs Sylvia Grot | R+19.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 60 | Amy Gray vs Joseph Aragona | D+6.6 | 70% D | Lean D | R |
| 61 | Denise Mentzer vs John Grossenbacher | D+8.7 | 80% D | Likely D | D |
| 62 | Phil Anosike vs Alicia St. Germaine | R+4.8 | 67% R | Lean R | R |
| 63 | Robert Kelly-McFarland vs Jay DeBoyer | R+17.6 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 64 | Ken Heuvelman vs Joseph Pavlov | R+9.7 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 65 | James Andonoff vs Jaime Greene | R+18.3 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 66 | Ned Zimmer vs Josh Schriver | R+16.9 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 67 | Leslie Getz vs Phil Green | R+5.2 | 66% R | Lean R | R |
| 68 | Isaiah Grays vs David Martin | D+10.3 | 80% D | Lean D | R |
| 69 | Jasper Martus vs Patrick Duvendeck | D+18.2 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 70 | Cynthia Neeley vs Larry Hutchinson | D+11.3 | 83% D | Likely D | D |
| 71 | Stephen Schlaack vs Brian BeGole | R+12.2 | 88% R | Likely R | R |
| 72 | Thomas Ryan vs Mike Mueller | R+13.6 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 73 | Julie Brixie vs Daniel Ewart | D+2.8 | 59% D | Tossup | D |
| 74 | Aaron Iturralde vs Clinton Tarver | D+3.6 | 62% D | Lean D | D |
| 75 | Penelope Tsernoglou vs Frank Lambert | D+22.1 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 76 | Angela Witwer vs Bill Kaiser | D+11.4 | 83% D | Likely D | D |
| 77 | Emily Dievendorf vs Sally Jo Nelton | D+7.0 | 72% D | Lean D | D |
| 78 | Rachel Gross vs Terence Frewen | R+9.3 | 82% R | Likely R | R |
| 79 | Zach Abbott vs Angela Rigas | R+14.5 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 80 | Lily Cheng-Schulting vs Doug Lee | D+3.1 | 60% D | Lean D | D |
| 81 | Stephen Wooden vs Holly DeBoer | D+3.9 | 63% D | Lean D | D |
| 82 | Kristian Grant vs Ryan Malinoski | D+12.3 | 84% D | Likely D | D |
| 83 | John Fitzgerald vs Cindy Ramirez | D+0.4 | 51% D | Tossup | D |
| 84 | Justin Rackham vs Drew Robbins | D+2.3 | 58% D | Tossup | D |
| 85 | Richard Abraham vs Bradley Slagh | R+16.9 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 86 | Joseph McClusky vs Nancy De Boer | R+14.5 | 92% R | Likely R | R |
| 87 | Will Snyder vs Cody Chipman | D+4.9 | 66% D | Lean D | D |
| 88 | Kiel Reid vs Greg VanWoerkom | R+18.3 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 89 | Meegan Zickus vs Patrick Kapenga | R+19.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 90 | Rachel Crowther vs Lynn Afendoulis | R+20.7 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 91 | Frank LaFata vs Pat Outman | R+14.1 | 87% R | Likely R | R |
| 92 | Luke Del Castillo vs Jerry Neyer | D+7.1 | 72% D | Lean D | R |
| 93 | Serenity Salak vs Tim Kelly | R+17.9 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 94 | Amos O'Neal vs Don Sugg | D+10.8 | 81% D | Likely D | D |
| 95 | AnnMarie Horseman vs Bill G. Schuette | D+1.9 | 56% D | Tossup | R |
| 96 | Christopher Girard vs Timothy Beson | R+9.4 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 97 | Jack Bader vs Briar Bearss | R+22.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 98 | Keith Brusseau vs Gregory Alexander | R+20.3 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 99 | David Forgione vs Mike Hoadley | R+19.1 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 100 | Tracy Ruell vs Tom Kunse | R+19.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 101 | Christopher Crain vs Gary Anderson | R+12.1 | 84% R | Likely R | R |
| 102 | Angel Coon vs Curt VanderWall | R+18.2 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 103 | Betsy Coffia vs Edwin Dean | D+2.3 | 58% D | Tossup | D |
| 104 | Mitchell Distin vs John Roth | R+16.4 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 105 | Rachel Longendyke-Teeter vs Ken Borton | R+20.8 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 106 | Phillip Aderhold vs Cameron Cavitt | R+19.6 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 107 | Melissa Perron vs Parker Fairbairn | R+15.0 | 89% R | Likely R | R |
| 108 | Rachel Keys vs Casey Hoffman | R+17.0 | 92% R | Likely R | R |
| 109 | Anna Rink vs Karl Bohnak | R+7.5 | 72% R | Lean R | R |
| 110 | Brian Irizarry vs Gregory Markkanen | R+13.1 | 86% R | Likely R | R |
| District | Candidates | Margin | Win Prob | Rating | Inc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abraham Aiyash vs Patrick O'Connell | D+26.3 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 2 | Abbas Alawieh vs Harry Sawicki | D+25.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 3 | Mohammad Alam vs Mark Ashley Price | D+35.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 4 | Darrin Camilleri vs Marcie Grzywacz | D+17.4 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 5 | Matt Koleszar vs Estelle Oliansky | D+23.3 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 6 | Mary Cavanagh vs Joi Pokerwinski | D+20.2 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 7 | Jason Hoskins vs Anthony Paesano | D+17.9 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 8 | Dayna Polehanki vs Kenneth Massey | D+18.8 | 94% D | Likely D | D |
| 9 | Theresa Brooks vs Michael Webber | D+5.6 | 68% D | Lean D | R |
| 10 | Mark Murphy vs Michelle Nard | D+12.4 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 11 | Veronica Klinefelt vs Johnnie Townsend | D+12.3 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 12 | Kevin Hertel vs Joseph Backus | D+6.8 | 73% D | Lean D | D |
| 13 | DC Anderson vs Ryan Berman | D+8.9 | 77% D | Lean D | D |
| 14 | Sue Shink vs Tawn Beliger | D+8.9 | 77% D | Lean D | D |
| 15 | Felicia Brabec vs Jason Rogers | D+16.0 | 91% D | Likely D | D |
| 16 | Deandre Barnes vs Joseph Bellino | R+18.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 17 | Ashleigh Baker vs Jonathan Lindsey | R+15.6 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 18 | Anthony Pennock vs Thomas Albert | D+3.2 | 60% D | Lean D | R |
| 19 | Julie Rogers vs Shaun Young | D+7.9 | 74% D | Lean D | D |
| 20 | Dale Murney vs Curtis Clark | R+10.1 | 81% R | Likely R | R |
| 21 | Sarah Anthony vs Josh Burns | D+8.0 | 74% D | Lean D | D |
| 22 | Robert Hower vs Mike Murphy | R+15.6 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 23 | Margarette Gupta vs Daniel Lawless | R+0.5 | 52% R | Tossup | R |
| 24 | Frank Borsellino vs Terence Mekoski | R+17.0 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 25 | April Osentoski vs Andrew Beeler | R+19.2 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 26 | Martin L. Cousineau vs Daltson Atwell | R+15.2 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 27 | John Cherry vs Bill Bain | D+21.2 | 98% D | Safe D | D |
| 28 | Rashida Harrison vs Julie DeRose | D+8.3 | 75% D | Lean D | D |
| 29 | Ivan Diaz vs Brady Middleton | D+11.1 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 30 | Carol Glanville vs Mark Huizenga | R+12.1 | 84% R | Likely R | R |
| 31 | Keagan Host vs Kevin J. Maas | R+15.5 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 32 | Rebecca Amidon vs Kim Cole | R+7.7 | 83% R | Likely R | R |
| 33 | Stan Opal vs Katie DeBoer | R+19.2 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 34 | Tyler Landgraf vs Roger Hauck | R+15.5 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 35 | Chedrick Greene vs Jason Tunney | D+6.0 | 69% D | Lean D | D |
| 36 | Mark Yonkman vs Michele Hoitenga | R+19.1 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 37 | Kate Gallup vs John Damoose | R+12.3 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 38 | Kelli van Ginhoven vs Beau LaFave | R+15.0 | 94% R | Likely R | R |