Minnesota State Legislature
2026 Election Forecast
2026 Election Forecast
| District | Candidates | Margin | Win Prob | Rating | Inc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Leanna Sandahl vs John Burkel | R+26.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 1B | Jennifer Compeau vs Steve Gander | R+15.4 | 89% R | Likely R | R |
| 2A | Reed Olson vs Bidal Duran | R+0.7 | 53% R | Tossup | R |
| 2B | Emily Thabes vs Matt Bliss | R+14.2 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 3A | Aaron Kania vs Roger Skraba | R+7.8 | 74% R | Lean R | R |
| 3B | Aaron Schweiger vs Natalie Zeleznikar | D+3.9 | 64% D | Lean D | R |
| 4A | Shelly Carlson vs Andrew Rockhold | D+14.1 | 94% D | Likely D | D |
| 4B | Thaddeus Laugisch vs Jim Joy | R+13.2 | 86% R | Likely R | R |
| 5A | Dan Mitchell vs Krista Knudsen | R+22.7 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 5B | Maggie Evers vs Jonathan Claussen | R+25.8 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 6A | Samuel Patrick Grigsby vs Ben Davis | R+18.1 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 6B | Nicky Hardy vs Josh Heintzeman | R+16.8 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 7A | Erin Ningen vs Spencer Igo | R+10.6 | 80% R | Likely R | R |
| 7B | Dan Horoshak vs Cal Warwas | R+5.4 | 67% R | Lean R | R |
| 8A | Pete Johnson vs Allan Kehr II | D+23.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 8B | Alicia Kozlowski vs Shawn Savela | D+21.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 9A | Nicholas Hanson vs Jeff Backer | R+21.0 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 9B | Owen Werner vs Tom Murphy | R+23.3 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 10A | Melissa Maertens vs Brian Lindquist | R+21.3 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 10B | Jeff Larson vs Isaac Schultz | R+29.0 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 11A | Chris Swanson vs Jeff Dotseth | D+3.6 | 61% D | Lean D | R |
| 11B | Jack L'Heureux vs Nathan Nelson | R+18.4 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 12A | Talitha Anderson vs Paul Anderson | R+24.9 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 12B | Michael Gardner vs Mary Franson | R+32.8 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 13A | Arlis Sayler vs Tanja Goering | R+26.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 13B | Justin Doyle vs Dawn Loberg | R+22.2 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 14A | Abdi Daisane vs Michael Conway | R+10.5 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 14B | Zach Dorholt vs Sue Ek | D+9.9 | 87% D | Likely D | D |
| 15A | Nathan Schmig vs Brad Hennen | R+22.5 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 15B | Keith Klawitter vs Geri Theis | R+24.1 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 16A | David Torgelson vs Scott Van Binsbergen | R+22.1 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 16B | Julie Vossen-Henslin vs Dave Baker | R+26.3 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 17A | Mali Anderson vs Dawn Gillman | R+25.5 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 17B | Ben Wieman vs Bobbie Harder | R+22.3 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 18A | Leah Hanson vs Erica Schwartz | R+3.6 | 67% R | Lean R | R |
| 18B | Luke Frederick (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 19A | Martha Brown vs Keith Allen | R+15.6 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 19B | Zack Meyman vs Tom Sexton | R+15.1 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 20A | Heather Arndt vs Pam Altendorf | R+10.8 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 20B | Steve Holm vs Sara Bertschinger | R+18.6 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 21A | Rusty Nelson vs Krist Wollum | R+24.8 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 21B | Jon Wilson vs Marj Fogelman | R+18.0 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 22A | Sonja Denn vs Bjorn Olson | R+21.9 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 22B | Mary Nesgoda vs Terry Stier | R+20.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 23A | Colin Minehart vs Nick Ronnenberg | R+18.9 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 23B | Christoph Dundas vs Patricia Mueller | R+8.4 | 76% R | Lean R | R |
| 24A | Heather Holmes vs Duane Quam | R+16.8 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 24B | Tina Liebling vs John Michael Ajouri | D+10.8 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 25A | Kim Hicks vs Brad Trahan | D+9.4 | 78% D | Lean D | D |
| 25B | Andy Smith vs Wes Lund | D+11.3 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 26A | Daniel Wilson vs Aaron Repinski | D+10.7 | 80% D | Likely D | D |
| 26B | Allie Wolf vs Greg Davids | R+13.7 | 92% R | Likely R | R |
| 27A | Vanessa Davenport vs Shane Mekeland | R+23.9 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 27B | Charles McConaughay vs Bryan Lawrence | R+26.4 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 28A | Tim Dummer vs James Gordon | R+19.7 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 28B | Daniel Colten Schmidt vs Max Rymer | R+17.4 | 96% R | Safe R | R |
| 29A | Emily Dahlgren vs Joe McDonald | R+23.2 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 29B | Marcus Claxton vs Marion Rarick | R+20.1 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 30A | Joey Smyth vs Walter Hudson | R+17.8 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 30B | Keenan Gentry vs Chad Westberg | R+20.2 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 31A | Brian Walker vs Harry Niska | R+15.9 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 31B | Jen Bloomquist vs Peggy Scott | R+23.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 32A | Amanda Matchett vs Nolan West | R+11.8 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 32B | Matt Norris vs Leslie Larson | D+9.9 | 89% D | Likely D | D |
| 33A | Angela Thompson vs Stacey Stout | R+12.9 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 33B | Josiah Hill vs Jessica L. Johnson | D+9.2 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 34A | Jason Heaser vs Danny Nadeau | R+10.4 | 80% R | Likely R | R |
| 34B | Xp Lee vs Ruth Bittner | D+17.0 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 35A | Zack Stephenson vs Josh Jungling | D+10.0 | 87% D | Likely D | D |
| 35B | Kari Rehrauer vs Steve Pape | D+9.8 | 87% D | Likely D | D |
| 36A | Jim DeMay vs Sebastian Stoss | R+9.8 | 85% R | Likely R | R |
| 36B | Brion Curran vs Patty Bradway | D+10.1 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 37A | Darci Smith vs Tom McKee | R+13.4 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 37B | Kristin Bahner vs Luke Doerer | D+10.1 | 79% D | Lean D | D |
| 38A | Huldah Hiltsley vs Charlie Kistler | D+20.6 | 95% D | Safe D | D |
| 38B | Samantha Vang vs Robert Marvin | D+28.3 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 39A | Aaron Klemz vs Andy Macko | D+18.7 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 39B | Amáda Márquez Simula vs Kt Jacobs | D+24.4 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 40A | Aisha Elmquist vs Luis Withrow | D+12.7 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 40B | David Gottfried vs Allen Shen | D+16.7 | 95% D | Safe D | D |
| 41A | Cole Birkeland vs Wayne Johnson | R+5.0 | 70% R | Lean R | R |
| 41B | Jen Fox vs William Beck | R+3.5 | 66% R | Lean R | R |
| 42A | Ned Carroll vs Kathy Burkett | D+11.3 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 42B | Ginny Klevorn (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 43A | Kyrstin Schuette vs Todd Hesemann | D+19.7 | 98% D | Safe D | D |
| 43B | Jess Lewis (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 44A | Peter Fischer vs Justin Middaugh | D+16.5 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 44B | Leon Lillie (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 45A | Tracey Breazeale vs Andrew Myers | R+10.3 | 86% R | Likely R | R |
| 45B | Patty Acomb vs Thomas Bergerson | D+13.4 | 89% D | Likely D | D |
| 46A | Larry Kraft vs Karl Olson | D+29.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 46B | Cheryl Youakim vs Kim Rich | D+14.6 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 47A | Shelley Buck (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 47B | Ethan Cha (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 48A | Joe Brothers vs Jim Nash | R+17.4 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 48B | Lucille Rehm vs Caleb Steffenhagen | D+6.6 | 70% D | Lean D | D |
| 49A | Alex Falconer vs Jeff Houdek | D+12.3 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 49B | Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn vs Wendy Cregg | D+10.6 | 80% D | Lean D | D |
| 50A | Julie Greene vs Chris Wedum | D+16.0 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 50B | Steve Elkins (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 51A | Michael Howard vs Frank Pafko | D+27.5 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 51B | Nathan Coulter vs Jim Lund | D+19.0 | 98% D | Safe D | D |
| 52A | Christos Jensen vs George Gilmour | D+14.0 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 52B | Bianca Ward Virnig vs Tom Lopac | D+12.4 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 53A | Mary Frances Clardy vs AJ Gubash | D+12.3 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 53B | Rick Hansen vs Patti Mikulski | D+14.7 | 95% D | Likely D | D |
| 54A | Brad Tabke vs Aaron Paul | D+8.2 | 79% D | Lean D | D |
| 54B | Christopher Kartschoke vs Natalie Barnes | R+16.8 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 55A | Jessica Hanson vs Pam Myhra | D+10.3 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 55B | Hunter Cantrell vs Todd Buchwald | D+12.4 | 91% D | Likely D | D |
| 56A | Robert Bierman vs A.J. Prospect | D+13.6 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 56B | John Huot vs Andrew Hattaway | D+10.9 | 85% D | Likely D | D |
| 57A | JD Delgado vs Jon Koznick | R+16.7 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 57B | Brian Cohn vs Jeff Witte | R+8.2 | 82% R | Likely R | R |
| 58A | Kristi Pursell vs Steven Cherney | D+10.5 | 91% D | Likely D | D |
| 58B | Ed Fellows vs Drew Roach | R+12.4 | 93% R | Likely R | R |
| 59A | Fue Lee (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 59B | Esther Agbaje vs Kenneth Smoron | D+36.3 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 60A | Sydney Jordan vs John Holmberg | D+38.2 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 60B | Mohamud Noor (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 61A | Katie Jones (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 61B | Jamie Long (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 62A | Aisha Gomez (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 62B | Anquam Mahamoud vs Bob Sullentrop | D+41.6 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 63A | Samantha Sencer-Mura vs Kyle Bragg | D+37.7 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 63B | Emma Greenman vs Nicholas Peters | D+39.3 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 64A | Meg Luger-Nikolai (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 64B | Dave Pinto (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 65A | Samakab Hussein (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 65B | Sebastian Ellefson (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 66A | Leigh Finke vs Mark Born | D+34.6 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 66B | Athena Hollins vs Mary O'Neal | D+32.2 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 67A | Liz Lee vs Jennifer McPherson | D+30.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 67B | Jay Xiong (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| District | Candidates | Margin | Win Prob | Rating | Inc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjorn Solberg vs Mark Johnson | R+16.4 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 2 | Dan Rogers vs Steve Green | R+10.2 | 81% R | Likely R | R |
| 3 | Grant Hauschild vs Andrea Zupancich | D+10.9 | 83% D | Likely D | D |
| 4 | Rob Kupec vs Austin Peterson | D+10.7 | 92% D | Likely D | D |
| 5 | Skylar Fynboh vs Paul Utke | R+23.3 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 6 | Denise Slipy vs Keri Heintzeman | R+14.7 | 91% R | Likely R | R |
| 7 | Kim McLaughlin vs Robert Farnsworth | D+0.0 | 50% D | Tossup | R |
| 8 | Jen McEwen vs Darrick Law | D+26.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 9 | Krystyne Knutson vs Jordan Rasmusson | R+19.9 | 95% R | Safe R | R |
| 10 | Tara Killen vs Nathan Wesenberg | R+22.7 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 11 | Mary Carlson vs Jason Rarick | R+9.5 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 12 | Kari Dorry vs Torrey Westrom | R+21.7 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 13 | Trent Dilks vs Aaron Brutger | R+22.7 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 14 | Aric Putnam vs Bernie Perryman | D+10.3 | 89% D | Likely D | D |
| 15 | Andrea Boettger vs Braxton Seifert | R+22.6 | 97% R | Safe R | R |
| 16 | Kathy Jorgenson vs Andrew Lang | R+18.7 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 17 | Julie Kelzer vs Glenn Gruenhagen | R+22.5 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 18 | Nick Frentz vs Jackie Henry | D+12.5 | 95% D | Likely D | D |
| 19 | Adama Doumbouya vs John Jasinski | R+15.7 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 20 | Jason Lohmann vs Steven Jacob | R+13.0 | 89% R | Likely R | R |
| 21 | Caitlyn Sanow-Minett vs Chris Knoll | R+27.2 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 22 | Marisa Ulmen vs Jeremy Munson | R+37.3 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 23 | Angie Hanson vs Gene Dornink | R+9.7 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 24 | Simon Glaser vs Nels Pierson | R+12.2 | 90% R | Likely R | R |
| 25 | Liz Boldon vs John Howie | D+11.7 | 82% D | Likely D | D |
| 26 | Jack Hedin vs Cherie Johnson | R+14.0 | 95% R | Likely R | R |
| 27 | Brandon Van Dover vs Andrew Mathews | R+24.0 | 99% R | Safe R | R |
| 28 | Max Glenna vs Mark Koran | R+17.3 | 94% R | Likely R | R |
| 29 | Dan Fiskum vs Michael Holmstrom Jr. | R+20.2 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 30 | Leah Temple vs Eric Lucero | R+19.2 | 98% R | Safe R | R |
| 31 | Gadisa Berkessa vs Calvin Bahr | R+16.8 | 95% R | Likely R | R |
| 32 | Chris Ford vs Michael Kreun | R+6.0 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 33 | Nat Smith vs Karin Housley | R+7.2 | 78% R | Lean R | R |
| 34 | John Hoffman vs Karen Attia | D+10.8 | 88% D | Likely D | D |
| 35 | Angela Nelson vs Jim Abeler | R+1.6 | 58% R | Tossup | R |
| 36 | Heather Gustafson vs Heidi Heino | D+10.2 | 87% D | Likely D | D |
| 37 | Austin Chanen vs Brady Hoag | R+10.7 | 87% R | Likely R | R |
| 38 | Susan Pha vs Brad Olson | D+22.7 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 39 | Mary Kunesh-Podein vs Pam Wolf | D+19.5 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 40 | John Marty vs Rachel Japuntich | D+17.2 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 41 | Judy Seeberger vs Tom Dippel | D+9.8 | 84% D | Likely D | D |
| 42 | Bonnie Westlin vs Kevin Peterson | D+11.6 | 89% D | Likely D | D |
| 43 | Mike Freiberg (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 44 | Teresa Miller vs James Tacheny | D+14.4 | 97% D | Safe D | D |
| 45 | Ann Johnson Stewart vs Shannon Bruce | D+10.7 | 86% D | Likely D | D |
| 46 | Ron Latz vs Kayla Wright | D+21.6 | 96% D | Safe D | D |
| 47 | Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger vs Brian Stalboerger | D+12.1 | 90% D | Likely D | D |
| 48 | Dan Kessler vs Julia Coleman | R+10.8 | 85% R | Likely R | R |
| 49 | Krish Subrahmanian vs Dustin DuFault | D+13.8 | 89% D | Likely D | D |
| 50 | Karla Hult vs Owen Michaelson | D+15.2 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 51 | Simon Trautmann Cordova vs Juline Birgersson | D+22.8 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 52 | Liz Reyer vs Brady O'Neil | D+15.2 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 53 | Paul Cumings vs Todd Podgorski | D+13.1 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 54 | Rick Olson vs Ben Bakeberg | R+11.3 | 85% R | Likely R | R |
| 55 | Lindsey Port vs Van Holston | D+10.7 | 86% D | Likely D | D |
| 56 | Erin Maye Quade vs Julida Alter | D+11.6 | 93% D | Likely D | D |
| 57 | Steven Schroer vs Zach Duckworth | R+12.2 | 92% R | Likely R | R |
| 58 | Mark Legvold vs Bill Lieske | R+3.2 | 65% R | Lean R | R |
| 59 | Bobby Joe Champion (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 60 | Doron Clark vs Abigail Wolters | D+39.6 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 61 | Scott Dibble (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 62 | Omar Fateh (Uncontested) | D+45.0 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 63 | Zaynab Mohamed vs Diane Napper | D+40.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 64 | Erin Murphy vs Robert Bushard | D+36.5 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 65 | Natasha Bennett vs Rocco | D+34.2 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 66 | Clare Oumou Verbeten vs Kathleen Bart | D+34.9 | 99% D | Safe D | D |
| 67 | Foung Hawj vs Toby Hesselgrave | D+28.1 | 99% D | Safe D | D |