Pennsylvania State Legislature

2026 Election Forecast

Updated 2026-10-26
Shapiro: +22
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Tossup
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

House of Representatives

107 Expected D
4 Tossup
96 Expected R
86 16 1 4 5 25 66
District Candidates Margin Win Prob Rating Inc
1 Patrick Harkins (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
2 Candidates TBD D+19.3 99% D Safe D D
3 Ryan Bizzarro vs Donna Reese D+13.6 92% D Likely D D
4 Kathryn Divittorio vs Jake Banta R+19.7 98% R Safe R R
5 Andres Ruben Flammer Santiago vs Eric Weaknecht R+18.3 93% R Likely R R
6 Michael Walker vs Bradley Roae R+21.7 99% R Safe R R
7 Christopher Ford vs Parke Wentling D+2.1 57% D Tossup R
8 Richard Telesz vs Aaron Bernstine R+20.5 99% R Safe R R
9 Shay Micco vs Marla Gallo Brown R+1.1 53% R Tossup R
10 Amen Brown (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
11 Kathy Smith vs Marci Mustello R+18.2 99% R Safe R R
12 Brandon Dukes vs Scott Timko R+16.6 98% R Safe R R
13 Madelyn Alvarino vs John Lawrence R+9.5 90% R Likely R R
14 Bradley Young vs Roman Kozak R+16.7 98% R Safe R R
15 Sydney Speicher vs Joshua Kail R+20.5 95% R Safe R R
16 Robert Matzie vs John Costanza D+12.8 93% D Likely D D
17 Tim Bonner (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
18 Bryan Allen vs K.C. Tomlinson R+7.4 81% R Likely R R
19 Aerion Abney (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
20 Emily Kinkead vs Joseph Aguglia D+15.5 98% D Safe D D
21 Lindsay Powell (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
22 Cecilia Gerlach vs Robert Smith D+20.2 95% D Likely D D
23 Dan Frankel (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
24 La'Tasha Mayes (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
25 Brandon Markosek vs Amy Noone D+16.0 99% D Safe D D
26 Paul Friel vs Samantha Horosky D+13.8 98% D Safe D D
27 Daniel Deasy Jr. vs Ed Brosky D+25.4 98% D Safe D D
28 Jeremy Ferderber vs Jeremy Shaffer R+8.7 89% R Likely R R
29 Tim Brennan vs Sean Patrick Duffy D+13.2 97% D Safe D D
30 Arvind Venkat vs Libby Blackburn D+12.5 97% D Safe D D
31 Perry Warren (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
32 Joe McAndrew vs Gary Motor D+17.4 99% D Safe D -
33 Mandy Steele vs Michael Hammill D+12.4 96% D Safe D D
34 Abigail Salisbury (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
35 Dan Goughnour vs James Edwards D+22.5 97% D Safe D D
36 Jessica Benham vs Timothy McCune D+22.3 99% D Safe D D
37 Chad Gleissl vs Mindy Fee R+18.4 93% R Likely R R
38 John Inglis vs Stone Sobieralski D+12.5 84% D Likely D D
39 Dylan Altemara vs Andrew Kuzma R+13.9 96% R Safe R R
40 Jon Lloyd vs Natalie Mihalek R+12.2 93% R Likely R R
41 Brad Chambers vs Brett Miller R+6.9 71% R Lean R R
42 Jennifer Mazzocco (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
43 Bryan Peirson vs Keith Greiner R+18.0 99% R Safe R R
44 Hadley Haas vs Valerie Gaydos R+2.8 65% R Lean R R
45 Brittany Bloam vs James Julius D+14.1 94% D Likely D D
46 Mike Crossey vs Jason Ortitay R+13.8 87% R Likely R R
47 Edward Ritter vs Joe D'Orsie R+14.4 88% R Likely R R
48 Rebecca MacTaggart vs Timothy O'Neal R+10.3 94% R Likely R R
49 Ismail Smith-Wade-El vs Vanessa Acosta D+23.1 97% D Safe D D
50 Lois Bower-Bjornson vs Ben Humble R+21.2 98% R Safe R R
51 Charity Grimm Krupa (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
52 Ryan Warner (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
53 Steven Malagari (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
54 Greg Scott (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
55 Davon Magwood vs Jill Cooper R+19.8 98% R Safe R R
56 Brian Rasel (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
57 Robert Francis vs Eric Nelson R+11.6 96% R Safe R R
58 Cherri Rogers vs Eric Davanzo R+21.2 99% R Safe R R
59 Jordan Omlor vs Leslie Baum Rossi R+21.4 96% R Safe R R
60 Dustyn Dorn vs Abby Major R+20.5 95% R Safe R R
61 Liz Hanbidge (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
62 Trajan Jones vs James Struzzi II R+22.1 96% R Safe R R
63 Andrew Harbaugh vs Josh Bashline R+31.6 99% R Safe R R
64 Amanda Shaffer vs R. Lee James R+20.3 99% R Safe R R
65 Destiny Howard vs Kathy Rapp R+24.6 98% R Safe R R
66 Lisa Gourley vs Brian Smith R+29.9 99% R Safe R R
67 Zach Ware vs Martin Causer R+33.5 99% R Safe R R
68 Quentin Gee vs Clint Owlett R+27.2 99% R Safe R R
69 Carl Metzgar (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
70 Matthew Bradford (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
71 Jim Rigby (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
72 Frank Burns vs Philip Rice D+12.9 94% D Likely D D
73 Dallas Kephart (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
74 Dan Williams vs Lorenzo Kelley D+12.5 96% D Safe D D
75 Kimberly Kohlhepp vs Mike Armanini R+27.7 99% R Safe R R
76 Sara Eggler vs Stephanie Borowicz R+21.1 99% R Safe R R
77 H. Scott Conklin vs Michelle Schellberg D+17.7 99% D Safe D D
78 Jesse Topper (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
79 Caleb McCoy vs Andrea Verobish R+17.0 99% R Safe R R
80 Sarah Holland vs Scott Barger R+32.5 99% R Safe R R
81 Caleb Donahue vs Richard Irvin R+31.3 99% R Safe R R
82 Paul Takac vs Kirsten McTernan D+12.7 95% D Likely D D
83 Jamie Flick (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
84 Joe Hamm (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
85 David Rowe (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
86 Wendy Morgan vs Perry Stambaugh R+25.7 99% R Safe R R
87 Jessica St. Clair vs Thomas Kutz R+13.5 95% R Likely R R
88 Sara Agerton vs Jeffrey Clark R+5.9 80% R Likely R R
89 Shannon Jackson vs Rob Kauffman R+22.6 97% R Safe R R
90 Chad Reichard (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
91 Kathleen Pratt vs Dan Moul R+17.0 92% R Likely R R
92 Krista Anderson vs Marc Anderson R+22.1 99% R Safe R R
93 Melissa Barnes vs Mike Jones R+16.5 91% R Likely R R
94 Konnor Grimek vs Wendy Fink R+17.2 99% R Safe R R
95 Carol Hill-Evans vs Jasmine Rivera D+15.5 90% D Likely D D
96 Nikki Rivera vs Babita Rusyn D+16.7 99% D Safe D D
97 Jess Branas vs Steven Mentzer R+13.4 86% R Likely R R
98 Hugh Hyder-Darlington vs Nicky Woods R+16.1 99% R Safe R R
99 Ethan Gabrick vs David H. Zimmerman R+23.0 97% R Safe R R
100 Dave Nissley (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
101 John Schlegel (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
102 Matthew Duvall vs Russell Diamond R+21.7 96% R Safe R R
103 Nate Davidson vs Cindi Ward D+16.6 97% D Safe D D
104 Dave Madsen (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
105 Justin Fleming (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
106 Anju Singh vs Thomas Mehaffie R+14.6 88% R Likely R R
107 Ryan Coleman vs Joanne Stehr R+26.8 98% R Safe R R
108 Amber Neidig vs Michael Stender R+16.3 99% R Safe R R
109 Justin Hummel vs Robert Leadbeter R+18.7 99% R Safe R R
110 Pamela Hemann vs Tina Pickett R+19.7 99% R Safe R R
111 Kyle Devlin vs Jonathan Fritz R+20.4 99% R Safe R R
112 Kyle Mullins vs Joseph Sabia Jr. D+20.6 95% D Safe D D
113 Kyle Donahue vs Lucas O'Brien D+15.7 90% D Likely D D
114 Bridget Malloy Kosierowski vs Logan Lombardo D+18.9 94% D Likely D D
115 Maureen Madden vs Rich Szabo D+12.7 94% D Likely D D
116 Dane Watro Jr. (Uncontested) R+45.0 99% R Safe R R
117 Jeremy Benscoter vs Jamie Walsh R+20.3 99% R Safe R R
118 James Haddock vs John Lombardo D+12.9 93% D Likely D D
119 Lauren McCurdy vs Alec Ryncavage R+15.1 93% R Likely R R
120 Fern Leard vs Brenda Pugh R+8.6 79% R Lean R R
121 Jessica McClay vs Mike Harostock D+12.5 96% D Safe D D
122 Christian Bartulovich vs Doyle Heffley R+23.7 97% R Safe R R
123 John Deatrich vs Tim Twardzik R+24.8 99% R Safe R R
124 Tina Burns vs Jamie Barton R+23.5 99% R Safe R R
125 Kathryn Waters vs Joe Kerwin R+20.1 95% R Likely R R
126 Jacklyn Rusnock vs Miguel Vasquez D+12.5 88% D Likely D D
127 Manuel Guzman (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
128 Andy Wagner vs Mark Gillen R+8.9 91% R Likely R R
129 Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
130 Erik Bonnett vs Melissa Brewer R+17.2 92% R Likely R R
131 Meriam Sabih vs Milou Mackenzie R+9.0 87% R Likely R R
132 Michael Schlossberg vs Caren Lowrey D+18.6 93% D Likely D D
133 Jeanne McNeill (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
134 Peter Schweyer vs Miriam Maldonado D+16.7 91% D Likely D D
135 Steve Samuelson vs Joe Poplawski D+22.0 99% D Safe D D
136 Robert Freeman vs Pilar Cavallo-Campisi D+14.9 99% D Safe D D
137 Jeff Warren vs Joe Emrick D+1.5 59% D Tossup R
138 Jared Bitting vs Ann Flood R+17.0 98% R Safe R R
139 Dominique Azzollini vs Jeff Olsommer R+19.3 98% R Safe R R
140 Jim Prokopiak vs Michael Gettis D+12.6 85% D Likely D D
141 Tina Davis vs Ken Velez D+21.2 99% D Safe D D
142 Kristin Egan vs Joseph Hogan R+5.8 74% R Lean R R
143 Tim Hayes vs Shelby Labs R+8.2 84% R Likely R R
144 Brian Munroe vs Mike Murphy D+12.9 97% D Safe D D
145 Les Mavus vs Craig Staats R+10.5 94% R Likely R R
146 Joseph Ciresi (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
147 Margaret Burke vs Donna Scheuren R+10.4 89% R Likely R R
148 Megan Griffin-Shelley (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
149 Tim Briggs (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
150 Joseph Webster (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
151 Melissa Cerrato (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
152 Nancy Guenst (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
153 Ben Sanchez vs Cory Toner D+21.9 99% D Safe D D
154 Napoleon Nelson (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
155 Danielle Friel Otten vs Greer Heindel D+13.8 98% D Safe D D
156 Christopher Pielli vs Kris R. Vollrath D+15.0 98% D Safe D D
157 Melissa Shusterman vs Justin Pak D+16.8 99% D Safe D D
158 Christina Sappey vs Tina Ayala D+14.5 97% D Safe D D
159 Carol Kazeem vs Michael Bannon D+22.2 96% D Safe D D
160 Elizabeth Moro vs Craig Williams D+1.3 58% D Tossup R
161 Leanne Krueger vs John Mancinelli D+14.5 98% D Safe D D
162 David Delloso vs Mike Murphy D+12.9 95% D Safe D D
163 Heather Boyd (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
164 Gina Curry (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
165 Jennifer O'Mara vs Deirdre McCleary D+15.8 98% D Safe D D
166 Judy Trombetta vs Joe Walker D+16.4 96% D Safe D D
167 Kristine Howard vs Joe Lewis D+14.9 98% D Safe D D
168 Lisa Borowski vs Kathryn Buckley D+14.6 97% D Safe D D
169 Austin Graham vs Kate Klunk R+23.2 97% R Safe R R
170 Rob Gurtcheff II vs Martina White D+2.1 62% D Lean D R
171 John Zangari vs Kerry Benninghoff R+23.6 97% R Safe R R
172 Sean Dougherty (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
173 Patrick Gallagher vs Bill Griffin D+14.2 98% D Safe D D
174 Ed Neilson (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
175 MaryLouise Isaacson (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
176 Thomas Kucer vs Jack Rader R+14.8 97% R Safe R R
177 Joseph Hohenstein vs Robyn Bird D+22.2 96% D Safe D D
178 Monica Weninger vs Kristin Marcell R+13.3 93% R Likely R R
179 Jason Dawkins (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
180 Jose Giral (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
181 Malcolm Kenyatta (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
182 Benjamin Waxman (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
183 Deirdre Kamber Todd vs Zachary Mako R+17.1 92% R Likely R R
184 Elizabeth Fiedler (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
185 Regina Young (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
186 Jordan Harris (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
187 Rachel Cuevas vs Gary Day R+6.2 69% R Lean R R
188 Rick Krajewski (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
189 Tarah Probst vs Danica Hartenfels D+14.0 97% D Safe D D
190 G. Roni Green (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
191 Joanna McClinton (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
192 Morgan Cephas vs Tiffany Vann Brown D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
193 Todd Crawley vs Catherine Wallen R+18.8 99% R Safe R R
194 Tarik Khan (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
195 Sierra McNeil (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
196 Ron Ruman vs George Margetas R+17.2 99% R Safe R R
197 Danilo Burgos (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
198 Darisha Parker (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
199 TaWanda Hunter Stallworth vs Barbara Gleim R+12.4 96% R Safe R R
200 Chris Johnson (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
201 Andre Carroll (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
202 Jared Solomon (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
203 Anthony Bellmon (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D

State Senate

25 of 50 seats up in 2026 · 25 held over to 2028 (D 10 / R 15, fixed)
23 Projected D (of 50)
1 Tossup
27 Projected R (of 50)
Projected Republican hold · net D +1 vs current 22–28 · Democrats would need 16 of the 25 up seats for control (projected 13)
12 1 2 3 7

All 50 seats in district order — greyed rows are held over to 2028 (current senator shown, not forecast). The ratings bar and projection above cover the 25 seats up in 2026.

District Candidates Margin Win Prob Rating Inc
1 Nikil Saval Held — not up until 2028 Dem
2 Christine Tartaglione (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
3 Sharif T Street Held — not up until 2028 Dem
4 Art Haywood vs Todd Johnson D+41.4 99% D Safe D D
5 Joseph Samuel Picozzi Held — not up until 2028 Rep
6 Eileen Hartnett Albillar vs Frank Farry R+3.6 70% R Lean R R
7 Vincent James Hughes Held — not up until 2028 Dem
8 Anthony Williams (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
9 John I Kane Held — not up until 2028 Dem
10 Steve Santarsiero vs Gregory Bankos Jr. D+15.0 99% D Safe D D
11 Judith S Schwank Held — not up until 2028 Dem
12 Maria Collett vs Robert Costello III D+16.2 99% D Safe D D
13 Scott Martin Held — not up until 2028 Rep
14 Nick Miller vs Omy Maldonado D+12.7 97% D Safe D D
15 Patricia H Kim Held — not up until 2028 Dem
16 Mark Pinsley vs Jarrett Coleman R+3.7 71% R Lean R R
17 Amanda Marie Cappelletti Held — not up until 2028 Dem
18 Lisa Boscola vs Scott Janney D+15.3 99% D Safe D D
19 Carolyn T Comitta Held — not up until 2028 Dem
20 Jaclyn Baker vs Lisa Baker R+19.3 99% R Safe R R
21 Scott E Hutchinson Held — not up until 2028 Rep
22 Martin Flynn vs Sharon Soltis D+16.8 99% D Safe D D
23 Emerson Eugene Yaw Held — not up until 2028 Rep
24 Christopher Thomas vs Tracy Pennycuick D+0.8 55% D Tossup R
25 Cris Dush Held — not up until 2028 Rep
26 Timothy Kearney vs Gail Scott D+16.4 99% D Safe D D
27 Lynda J Schlegel Culver Held — not up until 2028 Rep
28 Thomas Johnson vs Kristin Phillips-Hill R+18.5 99% R Safe R R
29 David G Argall Held — not up until 2028 Rep
30 Sean Steeg vs Judith Ward R+27.8 99% R Safe R R
31 Dawn Wetzel Keefer Held — not up until 2028 Rep
32 Jacob Cecil vs Patrick Stefano R+26.7 99% R Safe R R
33 Douglas V Mastriano Held — not up until 2028 Rep
34 Nathan Wood vs Greg Rothman R+15.1 99% R Safe R R
35 Wayne Langerholc Held — not up until 2028 Rep
36 James Malone vs Tom Jones R+9.2 92% R Likely R R
37 Devlin J Robinson Held — not up until 2028 Rep
38 Lindsey Williams vs Thomas West D+12.4 97% D Safe D D
39 Kim Ward Held — not up until 2028 Rep
40 Brian Wrightson vs Rosemary Brown R+6.0 81% R Likely R R
41 Joseph A Pittman Held — not up until 2028 Rep
42 Wayne Fontana (Uncontested) D+45.0 99% D Safe D D
43 Jay Costa Held — not up until 2028 Dem
44 Katie Muth vs Melissa Dicranian D+12.4 97% D Safe D D
45 Nickolas R Pisciottano Held — not up until 2028 Dem
46 Evan Snyder vs Camera Bartolotta R+11.0 95% R Likely R R
47 Elder A Vogel Held — not up until 2028 Rep
48 Wayne Moyer vs Chris Gebhard R+20.0 99% R Safe R R
49 Daniel J Laughlin Held — not up until 2028 Rep
50 Sue Mulvey vs Michele Brooks R+23.0 99% R Safe R R