Wisconsin State Legislature Forecast

State Assembly

50 Expected D

9 Tossup

49 Expected R

20 18 6 9 7 25 14

District	Candidates	Margin	Win Prob	Rating	Inc
1	Renee Paplham vs Joel Kitchens	R+9.1	79% R	Lean R	R
2	Alicia Saunders vs Shae Sortwell	R+11.8	85% R	Likely R	R
3	Michael Goodwin vs Ron Tusler	R+13.1	88% R	Likely R	R
4	Alexia Unertl vs David Steffen	R+15.0	91% R	Likely R	R
5	Justin Schumacher vs Joy Goeben	R+11.3	84% R	Likely R	R
6	Shirley Hinze vs Elijah Behnke	R+15.5	92% R	Likely R	R
7	Karen Kirsch vs Lee Whiting	D+17.8	94% D	Likely D	D
8	Sylvia Ortiz-Velez vs Angel Sanchez	D+32.8	99% D	Safe D	D
9	Priscilla Prado vs Samuel Guerrero	D+29.5	99% D	Safe D	D
10	Darrin Madison Jr. vs Brent Steeno	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
11	Sequanna Taylor vs Shandowlyon Hendricks Reaves	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
12	Russell Goodwin (Uncontested)	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
13	David Sanchez vs Mike Morgan	D+16.4	93% D	Likely D	D
14	Angelito Tenorio vs AmyRose Murphy	D+2.7	60% D	Tossup	D
15	Stephen Tryon vs Adam Neylon	R+6.5	72% R	Lean R	R
16	Kalan Haywood vs Alciro Deacon	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
17	Supreme Moore Omokunde vs Charlene Abughrin	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
18	Margaret Arney vs Joel Richmond	D+41.6	99% D	Safe D	D
19	Ryan Clancy vs Yasmine Outlaw	D+39.8	99% D	Safe D	D
20	Christine Sinicki vs Kyle Cleary	D+20.3	97% D	Safe D	D
21	Dan Bukiewicz vs Dylan Pfaffenbach	D+4.8	67% D	Lean D	R
22	Dana Glasstein vs Paul Melotik	R+4.8	66% R	Lean R	R
23	Deb Andraca vs Aleaner Pabonnie	D+21.8	98% D	Safe D	D
24	Matt Brown vs Daniel Knodl	R+7.9	76% R	Lean R	R
25	Christopher Able vs Paul Tittl	R+10.5	83% R	Likely R	R
26	Joe Sheehan vs John Belanger	D+10.6	83% D	Likely D	D
27	Lindee Brill (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
28	Robin Lillesve vs Rob Kreibich	R+14.8	91% R	Likely R	R
29	Chris Danou vs Treig Pronschinske	R+13.6	89% R	Likely R	R
30	Kevin Knoke vs Shannon Zimmerman	D+0.9	54% D	Tossup	R
31	John Perryman vs Tyler August	R+12.1	86% R	Likely R	R
32	Greg Miller vs Amanda Nedweski	R+16.7	93% R	Likely R	R
33	Rick Bailey vs Rick Stacey	R+14.5	90% R	Likely R	R
34	Merlin Van Buren vs Rob Swearingen	R+12.6	87% R	Likely R	R
35	Elizabeth McCrank vs Calvin Callahan	R+16.3	93% R	Likely R	R
36	Jeffrey Mursau (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
37	LaToya Bates vs Mark Born	R+17.0	93% R	Likely R	R
38	Terri Wenkman vs William Penterman	R+14.8	91% R	Likely R	R
39	Michael Skivington vs Alex Dallman	R+18.6	95% R	Safe R	R
40	Karen DeSanto vs Julie Helmer	D+14.3	90% D	Likely D	D
41	Zach Commons vs Tony Kurtz	R+11.4	85% R	Likely R	R
42	Maureen McCarville vs Keith Miller	D+14.5	90% D	Likely D	D
43	Brienne Brown vs Paul McGraw	D+0.6	53% D	Tossup	D
44	Ann Roe vs Ron Woodman	D+15.6	92% D	Likely D	D
45	Clinton Anderson vs Jocelyn Jordan	D+12.8	87% D	Likely D	D
46	Joan Fitzgerald vs John Donohue	R+0.2	51% R	Tossup	D
47	Randy Udell vs Sandy Bakk	D+31.1	99% D	Safe D	D
48	Andrew Hysell vs Mark Kjorlie	D+26.6	99% D	Safe D	D
49	John Rindy vs Travis Tranel	R+10.9	84% R	Likely R	R
50	Bryna Caves vs Jon Aleckson	D+13.2	88% D	Likely D	D
51	Ben Gruber vs Todd Novak	D+4.9	67% D	Lean D	R
52	Lee Snodgrass vs Reive Pullen	D+16.4	93% D	Likely D	D
53	Becky Nichols vs David Daniels	D+5.2	68% D	Lean D	R
54	Lori Palmeri vs Tim Paterson	D+11.8	86% D	Likely D	D
55	Alex Corrigan vs Nate Gustafson	R+8.5	78% R	Lean R	R
56	Grace Abitz vs Anthony Phillips	R+12.6	87% R	Likely R	R
57	Joey Marschall vs Ed Delgado	R+28.9	99% R	Safe R	R
58	Dennis Degenhardt vs Chris Bossert	R+20.2	96% R	Safe R	R
59	Jack Holzman vs Bradley Petersen	R+24.6	99% R	Safe R	R
60	Marty Ryan (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
61	Brian Bock vs Robert Donovan	D+4.7	66% D	Lean D	R
62	Angelina Cruz vs Mike Bellagio	D+20.4	97% D	Safe D	D
63	Eddie Phanichkul vs Robert Wittke	R+3.7	63% R	Lean R	R
64	Tip McGuire vs Ed Hibsch	D+14.9	91% D	Likely D	D
65	Ben DeSmidt vs Valerie Kretchmer	D+1.2	55% D	Tossup	D
66	Greta Neubauer vs Gina Cefalu Paulick	D+13.2	88% D	Likely D	D
67	Indiana Thompson vs David Armstrong	R+15.6	92% R	Likely R	R
68	Elisha King vs Rob Summerfield	R+22.1	98% R	Safe R	R
69	Roger Halls vs Karen Hurd	R+23.3	98% R	Safe R	R
70	Stephanie Stuve Bodeen vs Nancy VanderMeer	R+13.8	89% R	Likely R	R
71	Vinnie Miresse vs Jeff Disher	D+12.3	87% D	Likely D	D
72	Christine Maltese vs Scott Krug	R+12.6	87% R	Likely R	R
73	Angela Stroud vs Frank Kostka	D+17.6	94% D	Likely D	D
74	Paul Johnson vs Chanz Green	R+11.3	84% R	Likely R	R
75	Keith Mogel vs Duke Tucker	R+15.3	92% R	Likely R	R
76	Isaia Ben-Ami vs Nina Chat	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
77	Renuka Mayadev vs Jane McCormick	D+42.2	99% D	Safe D	D
78	Shelia Stubbs vs Henry Johnson	D+40.5	99% D	Safe D	D
79	Lisa Subeck vs John Fons	D+42.5	99% D	Safe D	D
80	Mike Bare vs Simran Arora	D+32.6	99% D	Safe D	D
81	Alex Joers vs Mark Maier	D+28.9	99% D	Safe D	D
82	Enrique Camacho vs Bryson Reyes	R+3.6	62% R	Lean R	R
83	Dave Maxey (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
84	Chuck Wichgers (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
85	John Kroll vs Patrick Snyder	D+3.1	61% D	Lean D	R
86	Andy Wuethrich vs John Spiros	R+15.4	92% R	Likely R	R
87	Bob Look vs Brent Jacobson	R+14.3	90% R	Likely R	R
88	Brandy Tollefson vs Benjamin Franklin	D+5.5	69% D	Lean D	R
89	Ryan Spaude vs Bobby Lindsey	D+10.5	83% D	Likely D	D
90	Amaad Rivera-Wagner vs Jessica Henderson	D+0.8	53% D	Tossup	D
91	Jodi Emerson vs Bruce Stabenow	D+0.7	53% D	Tossup	D
92	Jeremiah Fredrickson vs Clint Moses	D+2.4	59% D	Tossup	R
93	Christian Phelps vs Michael Ayala	D+11.9	86% D	Likely D	D
94	Steve Doyle vs Keith Purnell	D+10.4	83% D	Likely D	D
95	Jill Billings vs Cedric Schnitzler	R+0.9	53% R	Tossup	D
96	Tara Johnson vs Jim Green	D+11.9	86% D	Likely D	D
97	Cindi Duchow (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R
98	Matt Philibert vs Jim Piwowarczyk	R+20.0	96% R	Safe R	R
99	Barbara Dittrich (Uncontested)	R+47.5	99% R	Safe R	R

State Senate

17 of 33 seats up in 2026 · 16 held over to 2028 (D 10 / R 6, fixed)

16 Projected D (of 33)

3 Tossup

17 Projected R (of 33)

Projected Republican hold · net D +1 vs current 15–18 · Democrats would need 7 of the 17 up seats for control (projected 6)

3 2 3 3 6

All 33 seats in district order — greyed rows are held over to 2028 (current senator shown, not forecast). The ratings bar and projection above cover the 17 seats up in 2026.

District	Candidates	Margin	Win Prob	Rating	Inc
1	Katie Baney (Uncontested)	R+47.0	99% R	Safe R	R
2	Eric Wimberger	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
3	Tim Carpenter vs Angelina Galicia	D+20.3	97% D	Safe D	D
4	Dora Drake	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
5	Robyn Vining vs Mike Roberts	D+1.5	56% D	Tossup	R
6	LaTonya Johnson	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
7	Chris Larson vs Mike Moeller	D+18.5	95% D	Safe D	D
8	Jodi Habush Sinykin	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
9	Amy Binsfeld (Uncontested)	R+47.0	99% R	Safe R	R
10	Rob Stafsholt	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
11	Steven Doelder vs Nick Polce	R+19.1	96% R	Safe R	R
12	Mary Felzkowski	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
13	Sasha Ripley vs John Jagler	R+21.3	97% R	Safe R	R
14	Sarah Keyeski	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
15	Mark Spreitzer vs Scott Fleming	D+9.3	80% D	Lean D	D
16	Melissa Ratcliff	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
17	Corrine Hendrickson vs Howard Marklein	R+2.5	59% R	Tossup	R
18	Kristin Dassler-Alfheim	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
19	Emily Tseffos vs Rachael Cabral-Guevara	R+17.4	94% R	Likely R	R
20	Dan Feyen	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
21	Trevor Jung vs Jim Croft	R+0.2	50% R	Tossup	R
22	Robert Wirch	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
23	Jeff Foster vs Romaine Quinn	R+24.7	99% R	Safe R	R
24	Patrick Testin	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
25	Charly Ray vs Angie Sapik	R+9.9	81% R	Likely R	R
26	Kelda Roys	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
27	Dianne Hesselbein (Uncontested)	D+43.0	99% D	Safe D	D
28	Julian Bradley	Held — not up until 2028			Rep
29	Gillian Battino vs Cory Tomczyk	R+15.6	92% R	Likely R	R
30	Jamie Wall	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
31	Jeff Smith vs Michele Magadance Skinner	D+7.7	76% D	Lean D	D
32	Brad Pfaff	Held — not up until 2028			Dem
33	Mike Van Someren vs Chris Kapenga	R+22.8	98% R	Safe R	R